The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 begins today with Semi-Final One in Vienna – and The Model is ready to make its prediction.
Following Monday’s two dress rehearsals, including the jury show in which the national juries awarded their points in the semi-final for the first time since 2022, The Model now has all the knowledge it needs to make a firm, final prediction for tonight’s results.
Ten songs will qualify for the Grand Final of Eurovision 2026 tonight, and The Model is predicting tonight’s contest point-by-point, country-by-country, to try and work out the most likely outcome. In today’s prediction, I’ll take you through what The Model predicts for each of the competing songs, and I’ll try to shed light on why those outcomes could be possible, and why they might go entirely the other way.
I’ll also explain how each song performed in the Eurovision Audience Poll – where on the night of each show, teams of Eurovision reporters go out into the streets and ask people as they leave the arena what their favourite song of the evening was. These results are taken into account in The Model and, as someone who was on the street polling people, they shed real light into what people are thinking of the entries competing tonight.
What Is The Model?
The Model was built to answer a simple question: “if the Eurovision Song Contest was held today, who would win?” To do that, The Model has turned opinion into data in the lead-up to the Contest to create weekly updates on how the race to Vienna is shaping up. The tool has frequently been more successful in predicting the Contest than betting odds, fan polls, or any other indicator.
During Eurovision week, we’ll use The Model to predict each show in the Eurovision Song Contest on the day, with predictions arriving on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday afternoon for each of the final predictions. Those final predictions will also take into account the Eurovision Audience Poll, of which ESC Insight is a partner, which asks audience members who their favourite songs were as they leave the Wiener Stadthalle after the jury shows.
And with that, let the results commence.
The Model’s Full Semi-Final One Prediction (James Stephenson)
15: Estonia: Vanilla Ninja – Too Epic To Be True
Jury: 2 | Televote: 27 | Overall: 29
Estonia has long been at the bottom of The Model’s forecasts for this semi-final, and last night’s performances didn’t change that. Although Vanilla Ninja achieved a respectable tenth place in the Audience Poll, the results of the poll are often biased in favour of Western and Nordic countries, as a recent ESC Insight analysis has shown.
The band can rely on some televote support, particularly from friendly neighbours Finland and Lithuania, but The Model predicts that it will struggle massively with the jury vote. Those who I spoke to last night who said Estonia was their favourite largely skewed older, and I think the presence of Italy in this show as another song that succeeds with an older crowd won’t help viewers remember it.
14: Georgia: Bzikebi – On Replay
Jury: 23 | Televote: 27 | Overall: 50
Georgia had a tough, tough day on Monday. Bzikebi’s performance disappointed many, with the song achieving the fewest votes in last night’s audience poll and dropping in the qualification odds. That led to Georgia having the largest fall in The Model compared to the pre-Contest update on Sunday, dropping 30 points from 80 in twelfth place to 50 in fourteenth place.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, Bzikebi’s entry also came last in the Eurovision 2026 Press Poll, which was conducted yesterday in the media centre by ESCXtra. While this isn’t something that goes into The Model (the press plays a very insignificant role in determining results), it does give an impression of how an entry is landing with experts. Based on this, it’s landing with a thud.
13: San Marino: Senhit ft. Boy George – Superstar
Jury: 18 | Televote: 44 | Overall: 62
If The Model is absolutely correct about tonight, then Senhit won’t be returning to the Grand Final as she did in 2021 with a surprise guest star. San Marino did finish ninth in the Eurovision Audience Poll, which felt like a really positive sign, but the lack of underlying confidence in the betting markets is hurting it badly in this prediction.
There is a curiosity factor around the entry, though. Boy George is simply a massive, well-known name, and his cameo being introduced like he’s a pantomime character leans into the kind of camp and kitsch this song needs to sell itself on. During the polling window, I heard from a lot of people who were more stunned Boy George was actually there than anything else – that curiosity could lead to more points than many expect.
12: Portugal: Bandidos do Cante – Rosa
Jury: 60 | Televote: 4 | Overall: 64
The Model still doesn’t back Portugal to qualify for Saturday’s Eurovision final – but this is the highest position it’s had all season. Bandidos do Cante are performing fifth in a packed first half of this show, following Greece. That might just work in its favour – and could explain why I believe that this could be The Model’s blindspot tonight.
Fans attending the show who were part of the Audience Poll (which placed Portugal in 13th) are in the arena and want a high-energy, entertaining performance. But a lot of viewers, watching at home, might just appreciate the calm quality of Portugal’s staging, which feels very deliberate and cleverly placed. There is always a quiet song that does better than we expect, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Portugal found its way through – even if The Model doesn’t think so.
11: Belgium: Essyla – Dancing on the Ice
Jury: 36 | Televote: 37 | Overall: 73
The final song that The Model predicts won’t make it through to the Eurovision final is Belgium – and that’s new. Essyla has been holding on to the tenth spot throughout the updates in the lead-up to the Contest. However, Belgium’s eleventh place finish in the Audience Poll, particularly as a western country, was an alarming finish.
Not only that, it’s expected equivalence between jury and televote may end up hurting it. The performance seems to have been received solidly, but solid sometimes isn’t enough to get the high points scores around the board you need to break through the barrier. The Model has predicted Belgium to qualify from their last two semi-finals – and got it wrong on both occasions. This year, it would be deeply ironic if it got this prediction wrong in reverse.
10: Montenegro: Tamara – Nova Zora
Jury: 30 | Televote: 64 | Overall: 94
The song that The Model thinks will just make it through to the final is Montenegro’s. Tamara had a difficult first rehearsal in the afternoon, but definitely improved for last night’s jury final. Although she placed twelfth in the Audience Poll, Montenegro is a country that usually does less well in that poll on average, with eastern countries often suffering there. With a small gap of 11 votes to tenth place there, that feels like a leap Montenegro can make.
It would also be an emotional qualification, with Montenegro having failed to reach the Saturday night for 11 years. And the last time they did that was in Vienna at the very venue we are competing in this year, which would make this tenth place feel fitting. The Model doesn’t calculate nostalgia and sentimentality, though, so if Montenegro is to qualify, it will have to do so on hard support.
9: Lithuania: Lion Ceccah – Solo Quiero Mas
Jury: 86 | Televote: 18 | Overall: 104
Lithuania might be the biggest beneficiary of the biggest change to this year’s semi-finals – reintroducing the juries. Without them, The Model thinks that Lion Ceccah would face an uphill battle to make it to the final. Lithuania were fourteenth in the Audience Poll last night, which isn’t a great score at all. But this year, The Model has been consistent in its prediction that the juries would mobilise to make sure it made it.
Based on yesterday, I’d say this could be bang on. Lithuania’s dramatic, artistic performance captured the imagination of much of the press, and it came in the top three in yesterday’s press poll. If there’s more alignment between the thoughts of the press and those of the juries, then that could be a very good sign for Lion Ceccah. It would also mean Lithuania’s impressive qualification record just keeps rolling on.
8: Poland: Alicja – Pray
Jury: 102 | Televote: 25 | Overall: 127
The Model’s biggest call of the day – Poland looks to be in, and in comfortably. Last night, Alicja came out and delivered the mother of all jury performances in my opinion, adding as many notes as she was able to comprehend in the known universe. And the word on the street was effusive – several people stopped by to let me know as they voted that Alicja was the best vocalist of the night by a mile.
Now, there are some caveats for me. A big one is its fourth place in the Audience Poll: while that’s great on the surface, there is significant Polish diaspora here in Austria and so that result should be taken with a fair shake of salt. Even without that, I think it would have been a firm top ten, though, and that’s with a ‘televote’ crowd. If the juries appreciate her vocal in the same way, it could fly high – and The Model now has it taking over 100 points from them alone.
7: Serbia: Lavina – Kraj Mene
Jury: 66 | Televote: 76 | Overall: 142
Serbia is in the closing spot in tonight’s semi-final, but it won’t be closing its week early if The Model is right. Lavina are bringing metal to the Contest this year with a performance that slides between moody, quiet moments and explosive screaming with plenty of pyro to back it up. That combination appears to be working well, with Serbia looking a solid bet to qualify this year.
During the Audience Poll, where I asked people on the street to shout out their favourites, it was notable that many didn’t shout Serbia over other entries. But I and the rest of the team on the night noticed that quite a few actually came back and tapped us on the shoulder to say that they really wanted to give a vote to Lavina.
6: Croatia: Lelek – Andromeda
Jury: 108 | Televote: 60 | Overall: 168
In sixth place, Croatia have actually moved backwards in The Model for the first time. But that would be misrepresenting that Croatia really impressed people yesterday. Lelek’s performance was an upgrade over its national final act, with closer camerawork and sharper cutting throughout. The whole performance had a real sense of drama and class, and The Model expects the juries to eat it up.
For televoters, the prospects aren’t as strong, but still very solid. Croatia is projected to take 60 points there, which is about in line with its Audience Poll finish of sixth place. The song definitely has the potential to get a group of listeners to really fall in love with it, and attracting that sort of base in a genre that isn’t represented anywhere else in the show is a great route to success.
5: Sweden: Felicia – My System
Jury: 80 | Televote: 100 | Overall: 180
For most countries, fifth in a semi-final is a good day’s work. For Sweden, that’s probably a disappointment. Early on this season, The Model bullishly predicted that Felicia could win the semi-final altogether. However, a drift in the betting odds through rehearsals coupled with a relatively subdued Audience Poll performance has seen its projections shrink and shrink. It lost 83 points in the space of two weeks.
However, Sweden are always strong in semi-finals, and Felicia is still expected to sail through with relative ease. The only potential pitfall for Sweden is their running order placement – second place in one of the most competitive, high energy halves of a semi-final in recent memory. And, as the Audience Poll has definitely proven, it’s not going to be easy following up Moldova.
4: Moldova: Satoshi – Viva, Moldova!
Jury: 65 | Televote: 135 | Overall: 200
Speaking of! Satoshi, as I write this, is the only man of the hour. Last night, it was clear to me within 30 seconds of asking people on the street that Moldova had done better than expected. Considerably, colossally, better. Satoshi was the clear favourite in the Audience Poll, with so many people shouting Moldova at us it was hard to keep track. That’s especially notable given they are an Eastern European country, and even more so that they opened the show!
The Model isn’t quite as bullish as that on Moldova, but has still assigned it 45 more points than it did in the last update. In fact, Satoshi’s televote score would now be equal to Finland in this semi-final, the pre-Contest favourite. But what could limit Satoshi from going from a fan favourite to a serious Eurovision contender is the expected jury performance, even if Aliona Moon is singing those notes ten feet in the air.
3: Greece: Akylas – Ferto
Jury: 94 | Televote: 122 | Overall: 216
We’re getting into the heavy hitters now, and Greece is definitely in that conversation. Akylas’s staging was one of the talking points of the day in the press centre – with the prop we saw in the 30-second clip turning out to be arguably the least audacious set piece of the entire performance. That caused Greece to shoot up in the betting market. But the Audience Poll wasn’t quite as supportive.
Greece came third in the poll, which is pretty good, but it achieved less than half the votes Moldova did. I think that’s down to people being forced to pick one song only, and Moldova just being the better option than Greece for many when it comes to a high-energy, fun entry. That might present a worrying sign for Greece when we get into the Grand Final but, for now, there’s no question that Akylas is going to be a big part of this week’s storyline.
2: Finland: Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen – Liekinheitin
Jury: 119 | Televote: 135 | Overall: 254
It’s the pre-Eurovision favourite, and The Model’s favourite to win, but today’s prediction doesn’t show Finland even winning its semi-final. But I think there are a few reasons for that: for a start, Finland’s performance has largely retained the concept from its national final UMK, and the drama comes from the choice of camera angles rather than the arena experience. Something like Moldova, for example, feels tailor-made for that – and may have contributed to its Audience Poll landslide.
Of course, the main debate has been about the live violin, and in my opinion you can hear it loud and clear. That’s going to translate even more effectively on TV for those who know the violin isn’t being pumped in, and there is evidence to suggest that most semi-final viewers are more knowledgeable about the Contest than those who only tune in on Saturday. The Model’s projections have been good for Finland – but it’s not won Eurovision just yet.
1: Israel: Noam Bettan – Michelle
Jury: 97 | Televote: 170 | Overall: 267
And finally, The Model is officially predicting that Israel will be the winner of the first semi-final. That’s not that surprising – Israel has won its semi-final with phenomenally high scores in 2024 and 2025, so it would be consistent with their track record. But this year, it was thought that the reintroduction of the juries would definitely harm Israel’s prospects more than others. If The Model is right, that doesn’t appear to be entirely accurate.
The points score will be driven by the televote, where The Model has Israel scoring 170 points – exactly 10 per country on average. But even the jury score, 97 points, would probably be enough for Israel to qualify. During the Audience Poll, Israel placed a lowly eighth, but of course many don’t opt to say Israel despite their preference or only choose to tell us quietly. Those indicators don’t tell us much – but previous performance does.
There you have it – The Model’s official prediction for Semi-Final One of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026. Tonight, we’ll see whether this tool has helped us see the future – or led us up the wrong path.
This won’t be the final prediction we make, however. Using The Model, we’ll also be predicting the outcomes of Thursday’s second semi-final, and predicting Saturday’s Grand Final to see whether we can call the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest before it happens. Those reveals will be live on the ESC Gabe YouTube streams first, with the full results on ESC Insight almost immediately afterwards.
The ten qualifiers The Model predicts for the Grand Final of Eurovision 2026 are:
- Israel
- Finland
- Greece
- Moldova
- Sweden
- Croatia
- Serbia
- Poland
- Lithuania
- Montenegro
We’ll see if those ten are correct tonight, and we’ll see you on Thursday for the next update from The Model.