The Model, a Eurovision Song Contest prediction tool, is projecting Finland as the winner of the Eurovision 2026 if the contest was held today.
On the eve of Eurovision week, ‘Liekinheitin’ by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen looks to be in a strong position to win this year’s contest in Vienna, Austria. The song, which represents Finland this year, would score 430 points if The Model was precisely correct, boosted by the major announcement that Linda would be playing the violin live for parts of her performance.
Sunday’s pre-Eurovision update from The Model was revealed first on the ESC Gabe YouTube channel with a full voting sequence which you can enjoy here:
Finland has a 73 point lead in this projection ahead of Denmark, who have climbed into the runner-up position for the first time, and a further 19 points over Israel in third. This week, The Model takes into account all the movement in the betting markets, updated votes on community rankings, the full results of Eurojury and all the reaction to the 30-second preview clips of each country’s performance from this week’s rehearsals.
Additionally, there is an exciting tweak to the semi-finals, in which tactical voting has been added for the first time. With more viewers of the semi-finals being knowledgeable about the races for qualification, there is evidence to suggest more voters are lending their votes from songs they feel are certain to qualify to those that are on the borderline. That small change in behaviour can have a profound effect on the results – and The Model now takes that into account.
In this update on the eve of Eurovision 2026:
- Who has gained the most from the rehearsal week?
- Who does The Model have qualifying for the first time?
- Will Linda’s violin take Finland to the victory?
What Is The Model?
The Model was built to answer a simple question: “if the Eurovision Song Contest was held today, who would win?” To do that, The Model has turned opinion into data in the lead-up to the Contest to create weekly updates on how the race to Vienna is shaping up. The tool has frequently been more successful in predicting the Contest than betting odds, fan polls, or any other indicator.
During Eurovision week, we’ll use The Model to predict each show in the Eurovision Song Contest on the day, with predictions arriving on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday afternoon for each of the final predictions. Those final predictions will also take into account the Eurovision Audience Poll, of which ESC Insight is a partner, which asks audience members who their favourite songs were as they leave the Wiener Stadthalle after the jury shows.
And with that, for the final full update of Eurovision 2026, this is what The Model forecasts would happen if the Eurovision Song Contest was held today, 10 May 2026.
Semi-Final One
Semi-Final One from The Model – 10/05/2026 (James Stephenson)
We’ll start with Semi-Final One, with the juries casting their votes exactly 24 hours from the publication of this article. With a short time to go, we know almost as much as we can about what’s coming – except for the full performances themselves!
If we voted now, then The Model projects that Israel would win this semi-final with ‘Michelle’. Following on from winning its semi-final in 2024 and 2025, Noam Bettan would make it a third year on the bounce with 171 televote points and 92 jury points – so 263 overall. That would put it seven points ahead of Finland, whose score has reduced despite the data going in their direction this week. That’s because of the new tactical voting system, which sees points move away from the favourites in favour of those fighting for the final.
Finland is a strong second ahead of Greece in third and Sweden in fourth. Felicia has fallen by 61 points from the last update, a drop-off that the tactical voting alone doesn’t cover – Sweden has moved much further out in the betting markets during the rehearsal week. Croatia, Moldova and Serbia are almost exactly where they were, with The Model still projecting them as solid bets to reach the final.
Lower down, The Model also backs the juries to carry Lion Ceccah and Lithuania through to Saturday night – 93 points would be fourth place with the juries in this projection. And, from there, the final two spots look to be hotly contested. Montenegro is in ninth in this simulation with 104 points and Belgium follows with 95.
However, Tamara and Essyla have gained much less from the rehearsals in The Model than Alicja has for Poland. ‘Pray’ is up 32 points after a well-received preview clip, and Portugal’s ‘Rosa’ has climbed 37 points: more than double its previous tally. Momentum, then, appears to be with those songs catching up to the qualifying line, while Georgia’s ‘On Replay’ has lost points after the rehearsal clip release. San Marino and Estonia still appear to be long shots to make it, but don’t count anybody out – The Model’s prediction for last in semi-final one made it through last time!
Semi-Final Two
Semi-Final Two from The Model – 10/05/2026 (James Stephenson)
In Semi-Final Two, there has been even more change and upheaval. Compared to the last update, which took place almost two weeks ago, only four songs have stayed in the same position. There are major points swings, momentum shifts and a major development – The Model has projected a new qualifier to make it to Saturday night.
Before we get into that, we start at the top – and we have a new leader. Ukraine is now projected to win this semi-final, much like they did in 2025, with ‘Ridnym’ by Leleka at the front with 270 points. She’s up by 32 points, while Denmark and Australia fall a place each to second and third. ‘Før Vi Går Hjem’ and ‘Eclipse’ are still looking strong, though, with their paths to the final looking almost certain.
In fourth place, Malta has jumped up with the biggest gain of any country in this week’s Model. Aidan’s ‘Bella’ is 55 points better off compared to the last update, backed by a significant boost in the odds and an extravagant, large-scale advertising campaign. One place lower is Romania, who earned significant buzz off the back of their rehearsal footage. ‘Choke Me’ is up by six points in this update and should return Romania to their first final in four years.
Cyprus, Bulgaria and Czechia have all dropped points behind, but appear to still be good bets for the Grand Final. However, some on social media have noted concerns over Antigoni’s lead vocal – one of the biggest unknowns going into any Eurovision show. Albania holds ninth place, a bit further away from the others – but the song in tenth is the biggest story in The Model’s latest update.
Switzerland is now projected by The Model to qualify for the Eurovision Song Contest final for the first time this season. ‘Alice’ by Veronica Fusaro has had a real boost from the rehearsals, with the song now 16 points and one all-important place higher. That means that Switzerland makes the final at Norway’s expense, with Jonas Lovv falling to eleventh place and 16 points lower. ‘Ya Ya Ya’ appears to face a battle to gain its spot back in such a competitive semi-final.
Latvia has climbed into twelfth, with Luxembourg and Armenia dropping a place each – Atvara appears to have the best momentum of the songs currently outside the top 10. And spare a thought for Azerbaijan, which The Model only thinks will gain three points from their European neighbours during the semi-final vote.
Grand Final
The Top Five from The Model – 10/05/26 (James Stephenson)
In the Grand Final, the top five is the same as it has been for several updates. The order, though, has changed.
There are two main narratives that have developed this week that could have an outcome on the final result. The first, of course, was the shock announcement that the EBU had granted Finland special dispensation for Linda Lampenius to play her violin live for part of her performance.
The news drew excitement from some and surprise from others, with many questioning the fairness of Linda’s request being accepted when other artists’ requests reportedly got denied. The EBU has since clarified that you can play instruments that don’t need to be plugged into anything live – and Linda’s violin fits the bill.
But will that affect Finland’s score? Based on The Model, it could. ‘Liekinheitin’ has climbed by 23 points off the back of the news and the rehearsal clip, with Finland’s major shortening in the odds driving a lot of that momentum. Of course, an artist playing a live instrument is almost unprecedented in modern Eurovision – almost. Last year Lucio Corsi convinced the EBU to play his harmonica live during ‘Volevo Essere Un Duro’, and Italy got a brilliant fifth placed finish. If Linda’s violin gives her a similar boost, then Finland look to be the firm favourite going into Eurovision week.
The second storyline concerns Israel, and new rules around their promotion. On Saturday, the EBU issued KAN a formal warning around promotional videos that emerged the previous day, featuring their artist Noam Bettan and calling for viewers to vote for Israel 10 times. The Eurovision organisers have confirmed that asking for multiple votes is considered to be ‘disproportionate’ in line with the new rules around promotional campaigns introduced for Eurovision 2026.
Israel has climbed to third in The Model, although a fall for France has contributed to this. But there is a chance of this affecting Israel’s performance in both ways. On the one hand, it could lead to a backlash from some who see Israel breaking the new rules. However, it may galvanise some of their fans who feel that the new rules are too harsh on them. If it wasn’t already a narrative to follow, this is now even more difficult to predict.
Full Split Results from The Model – 10/05/26 (James Stephenson / DouzePoints.app)
There are just heaps of storylines we could go into, though. We could talk about Romania’s rise, going past Sweden in the overall standings. We could mention some of the other countries who had well-received rehearsal clips, like Croatia, Italy and Serbia. And, further down the list, the United Kingdom would be 16 points better off in the public vote than in the last two years – but it’s looking like a tall order for Look Mum No Computer to get a high placing in Vienna.
But we’ll soon find out. Eurovision 2026 is upon us, and it’s time to discover what Europe will decide. On the day of each of the three live shows, I’ll fire up The Model again to make one last prediction, where ‘What would happen if the Eurovision Song Contest was held today?’ really means today!
Finland’s in front – but will they win next week? We’ll see you for the final projections from The Model.