The Model, a Eurovision Song Contest prediction tool, has declared Finland to be the favourite to win Eurovision 2026 in Vienna.
‘Liekinheitin’ by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen is projected to score 411 points to win Eurovision tonight, with The Model sticking by the projections it has made throughout the season that Finland would win. If today’s prediction was correct, Finland is set to win their first Eurovision in 20 years since Lordi won with ‘Hard Rock Hallelujah’.
Finland is followed by Australia in second place. Delta Goodrem and ‘Eclipse’ is projected to win the jury vote, while Finland is projected to win the public vote. Israel follows in third place, and Romania’s ‘Viva, Moldova!’ and Bulgaria’s ‘Bangaranga’ are now in fourth and fifth place respectively.
This is the final call from The Model, a tool that I built to try and predict the Contest, for 2026. For the first and only time this year, you are not looking at a forecast of what Eurovision could look like – this is a prediction of what it will look like tonight.
What Is The Model?
The Model was built to answer a simple question: “if the Eurovision Song Contest was held today, who would win?” To do that, The Model has turned opinion into data in the lead-up to the Contest to create weekly updates on how the race to Vienna is shaping up. The tool has frequently been more successful in predicting the Contest than betting odds, fan polls, or any other indicator.
During Eurovision week, we’ve used The Model to predict each Eurovision Song Contest show on the day, with final predictions arriving on the day of each show. Those final predictions have taken into account the Eurovision Audience Poll, of which ESC Insight is a partner, which asks audience members which their favourite songs were as they leave the Wiener Stadthalle after the jury shows.
They also include all the latest market movements, community rankings, and a range of other factors, such as internal musical statistics, tactical voting, and more. And, with all of that factored in, this is what The Model believes will happen tonight.
This is your official Eurovision 2026 prediction.
The Model’s Eurovision Top Five (James Stephenson)
The Model Eurovision 2026 Full Results (James Stephenson)
The Model Eurovision 2026 Full Breakdown (James Stephenson)