The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 continues today with Semi-Final Two in Vienna – and once again, The Model is making its prediction for how tonight will pan out.
With the semi-final broadcasting live tonight, it’s time to find out which ten entries are the most likely to make Saturday’s Grand Final according to the data. Now that the show is just hours away, The Model has all the stats it needs to select which songs could qualify.
The Model has taken all of the latest up-to-date information into account, including reactions to yesterday’s dress rehearsals, market movements, and what people said on the street for the Eurovision Audience Poll. In this article, I’ll analyse the potential reasons why The Model’s predictions have been made, whether these outcomes are likely or unlikely, and what we could expect from the dramatic voting sequence tonight.
I was also lucky enough to watch last night’s jury show inside the Wiener Stadthalle in the Austrian capital, where I got to see how each song performed in front of a live crowd and compare reactions through the evening. It was a whirlwind night with plenty of people to speak to, plenty of singing songs at people to remind them what they liked, and a lot of number-crunching to come up with the standings you’re about to see.
And with that, we should see them.
What Is The Model?
The Model was built to answer a simple question: “if the Eurovision Song Contest was held today, who would win?” To do that, The Model has turned opinion into data in the lead-up to the Contest to create weekly updates on how the race to Vienna is shaping up. The tool has frequently been more successful in predicting the Contest than betting odds, fan polls, or any other indicator.
During Eurovision week, we’ll use The Model to predict each show in the Eurovision Song Contest on the day, with predictions arriving on the day of each show for the final predictions. Those final predictions will also take into account the Eurovision Audience Poll, of which ESC Insight is a partner, which asks audience members who their favourite songs were as they leave the Wiener Stadthalle after the jury shows.
So let the results commence.
The Model’s Full Semi-Final Two Prediction (James Stephenson)
15: Azerbaijan: Jiva – Just Go
Jury: 2 | Televote: 1 | Overall: 3
I never want to write any song off. I believe that anything can happen at the Eurovision Song Contest – and it usually does. But, even with the most optimistic of worldviews and the most sympathetic thinking, I am finding it virtually impossible to see Azerbaijan reaching the Grand Final. Or even reaching higher than 15th place tonight. The Model has it earning just three points – and it could get worse.
When I ask people for their favourite songs, you get a whole range of responses. But last night, there were none for Azerbaijan. While it got 15 votes overall through the night, not a single one of those told me. Eight people are around the arena gathering votes, and so on average everybody got just under two responses for Azerbaijan. With cratering odds and a lack of support across all metrics, this will be a tough night.
14: Armenia: Simón – Paloma Rumba
Jury 5: | Televote: 42 | Overall: 47
I’ll say this – I like a lot of the ideas on stage for Armenia. There’s a lot of fun watching Simón, who has the energy of a jackhammer on a building site, absolutely thrashing around the stage with his dancers. Paloma Rumba is hugely energetic – the most energetic song The Model has statistically recorded – and therefore it should be something that grabs the attention and, in theory, captures votes.
But, watching Armenia in the arena, I saw something worrying. Not cheers, but confusion. People seemed to just be alienated by the song, by its concept, and simply by what was going on in front of them. Armenia placed 14th in the Audience Poll last night, worrying for a song that feels like it has to rely on the public vote to succeed. The Model believes that its jury prospects are very limited, too.
13: Luxembourg: Eva Marija – Mother Nature
Jury: 54 | Televote: 18 | Overall: 72
Luxembourg has had a perfect qualification record since they returned to Eurovision in 2024. However, if The Model is right, that record is about to collapse. Eva Marija is projected to place 13th in tonight’s semi-final, but with a fairly healthy points total. And, like the song’s staging itself, full of references to flowers and green shoots of growth, there is one positive sign for Luxembourg going into tonight.
In last night’s Audience Poll, Luxembourg rose to a very respectable seventh place. A lot of those who voted for Eva Marija were young kids with their families, who really seemed to take to the young, bright energy Eva brought to the stage. In a year where the favourite to win is an intense, intimidating violinist, that is one sign a softer version of that character could succeed. But for now, there’s just not enough evidence they can make it.
12: Switzerland: Veronica Fusaro – Alice
Jury: 64 | Televote: 14 | Overall: 78
On Sunday, The Model caused a stir by projecting Switzerland as a likely qualifier for the Eurovision final. But today, it’s gone back on its promise, and Switzerland appears to have negative momentum going into tonight. Veronica Fusaro’s staging doesn’t seem to have risen to strong expectations coming from its 30-second preview clip last week and, as a result, Switzerland is projected out here.
A worrying sign of this was its performance in the Audience Poll. While tenth place is a qualifying position in theory, the poll is often biased in favour of Western countries, and especially nations that are near to the host country. The Swiss only have to travel over a single border to get to Austria, and a big concern I had is that many wearing Swiss flags and scarves voted for other entries rather than their own.
11: Latvia: Atvara – Ēnā
Jury: 40 | Televote: 41 | Overall: 81
The final spot outside the top ten goes to Latvia – but there are omens in its favour. Last year, Latvia also had this position in the betting odds going into the second semi-final, and they didn’t just qualify but shot up to second place in the public vote. Not only that, The Model had Belgium in eleventh place for the first semi-final. I said if I got Belgium wrong it would be deeply ironic – I am able to report it very much is ironic.
I would compare Latvia’s chances quite favourably with Belgium, though. Atvara’s position in The Model has been improving all the time, and the projection of 81 points is the highest its had all season. Not only that, look at the projected split – almost identical between jury and televote. Essyla’s entry was another The Model felt could get support on both sides, and that route might be the way into the final at another song’s expense.
10: Albania: Alis – Nân
Jury: 42 | Televote: 56 | Overall: 98
Now into the top ten, and we begin with Albania. Honestly, I am surprised that The Model is this underconfident on Albania’s chances – Alis has lost 17 points since Sunday’s projection of this semi-final. But there are a couple of little signals that may suggest that, while Albania could still make the Grand Final, they might not have as smooth of a ride into the show as some expect.
The running order is a big factor. Alis will be performing directly before Aidan for Malta, two emotional male ballads back-to-back. And while Albania received the most love in the Audience Poll last night (eighth place to Malta’s tenth), Aidan’s performance is far more made for television with less arena interaction. Meanwhile, Albania’s staging is completely visible. If it’s a direct comparison, Aidan could do better – and may hurt Alis’s chances.
9: Cyprus: Antigoni – Jalla
Jury: 24 | Televote: 76 | Overall: 100
I already know this will be the most controversial prediction of the week. The Model, going against lots of conversation, is projecting that Cyprus will make it to Saturday. This is despite questions about Antigoni’s live vocals dominating the build up to the entry. The Model has reflected that sudden lack of confidence – Cyprus has lost an astonishing 77 points from Sunday to Thursday in its projections.
Now, I would have personally thought that Cyprus had a struggle on their hands. Famously, The Model predicted Cyprus would fail to qualify off the back of poor live vocals from Theo Evan in Basel. But this time, the Audience Poll results gave Antigoni a huge amount of hope, with Cyprus coming in fifth place. This might be a case where the song is so strong and so likeable that it may make up for any vocal hiccups during the live broadcast tonight.
8: Norway: Jonas Lovv – Ya Ya Ya
Jury: 46 | Televote: 78 | Overall: 124
If Cyprus is the song with the biggest fall, Norway has the biggest climb. Jonas Lovv was another massive beneficiary of the Eurovision Audience Poll, with a fourth placed finish and a vote total that wasn’t far off of Denmark. I’m not surprised by this, to be honest: Jonas is a charismatic live performer, and I felt like his vocals were the best they had ever been. As he’s closing the show, that also means he benefits from recency bias as people come out of the arena.
Norway has been on and off with The Model all season. It’s been out, it’s been in, and it’s been flitting between spots every single week. But now, Norway’s strong results yesterday have moved it up to 124 points, which is by far its biggest projection of the season. Much like Poland’s climb as we saw Alicja’s performance, we’re seeing Jonas’s superb vocal abilities really shine through.
7: Czechia: Daniel Žižka – Crossroads
Jury: 128 | Televote: 36 | Overall: 164
We have a jury darling on our hands. When we stepped into the Wiener Stadthalle for the first dress rehearsal yesterday afternoon, we had lots to look forward to. There are some great stagings right across the board, but if I had to pick? Czechia was an absolute standout. Not only were Daniel Žižka’s vocals just impeccable, the staging used mirrors, reflections and illusions to create something deeply introspective and visually stunning.
Now, that’s just my opinion – and The Model is based on numbers. The numbers for Czechia in the Audience Poll were not ideal, with it placing outside of the top 10 with the folks coming out of the venue. But, much like Lithuania on Tuesday, The Model predicts that this is the song the juries are going to come out to bat for. With a wild split of 128 jury points and 36 televote points projected, this looks good for Czechia to finally make the Grand Final again.
6: Romania: Alexandra Căpitănescu – Choke Me
Jury: 56 | Televote: 126 | Overall: 182
Potentially the biggest winner during rehearsals week was Romania. Alexandra Căpitănescu was photographed struggling against binds of pure light, absolutely popping on camera and getting a lot of people excited about their chances. Having watched the full performance, that striking visual definitely carries through – and The Model predicts that Romania will have no issue returning to the final on their first year back at the Contest.
With a sixth-place projection, which matches its result in the Audience Poll, Romania looks to have very solid prospects. However, the song has fallen by 17 points since the last projection, which does suggest that the staging didn’t quite live up to what were exceedingly high expectations. That doesn’t hurt Romania’s prospects tonight – but it may have an effect on how it does on Saturday.
5: Bulgaria: Dara – Bangaranga
Jury: 67 | Televote: 135 | Overall: 202
Without question, this was the biggest surprise of the day. Bulgaria’s return to the Contest is at the opening spot of the semi-final, much like Moldova. We then saw an absolutely fantastic, high-quality staging, much like Moldova. And, when the audience left the rehearsal show last night and came out to speak to us for the Audience Poll, it was the crowd’s favourite – much like Moldova.
So, what does The Model think of its chances? Well, they’re much like Moldova. Bulgaria is projected to score 202 points, almost identical to Moldova, and with a reasonably equal voting split. But compared to Moldova’s absolutely riotous reception, the song that has ‘welcome to the riot’ throughout its lyrics got far fewer votes than Moldova did. You can’t quite compare them directly, then – but tonight you should expect a similarly strong performance for Dara.
4: Malta: Aidan – Bella
Jury: 148 | Televote: 84 | Overall: 232
In fourth place, there is a singer whose childhood dream is about to come true. Malta’s Aidan has definitely been one of the most marketed entries at the Contest this year, but the question I had going into yesterday was whether there was organic support in the audience. Having seen two runs of the entry in the arena, I’m not sure whether the public vote will fully back it. But when it comes to the juries? There’s a big chance of success.
A major caveat from me is that I’ve still not seen a lot of Malta on camera – specifically, the big spinning shot inside Malta’s prop is still a mystery to me. Malta had a modest reception in the venue, and a tenth place finish in the Audience Poll was surprisingly low. But with this performance being so, so directed at television, and with a classic style that The Model indicates the jurors should fall for, it may still be a ‘Bella’ night ahead.
3: Denmark: Søren Torpegaard Lund – Før Vi Går Hjem
Jury: 112 | Televote: 136 | Overall: 248
We’ve made it to the podium – and the three songs in these slots have almost been unchanged in The Model in each projection. But what has changed? The order. That’s because Denmark has gone from being second favourite on Sunday to the third favourite in The Model’s simulation on show day.
Why is that? I think it’s just down to it being a competitive race. Denmark’s staging, which is virtually unchanged from the national final (and rightfully so), is not as arena friendly as some other contenders. Despite this, though, Denmark was still third in the Audience Poll, which is really great in my opinion. What might help is the new mix of the song, which is absolutely thumping in the arena!
2: Ukraine: Leléka – Ridnym
Jury: 106 | Televote: 151 | Overall: 257
This result is not based on the data from 2026 – it’s based on data from the past. Going into tonight’s show, Ukraine is thirteenth in the Audience Poll, couldn’t break into the top ten in the Press Poll held at the Eurovision media centre, and is in a middling position in the odds. However, there’s one strong force that puts all of those metrics in the shade, and it’s a really simple one: it’s Ukraine.
Last year, I remember conducting the Audience Poll and getting almost no support for Ziferblat on the ground. But despite coming in a similar position in that poll, Ukraine won the semi-final outright by winning the public vote. And, even with the juries back, Ukraine can still expect something big. That’s because Leléka’s vocals are absolutely outstanding, and the song has the kind of classy staging we’ve come to expect from a nation that’s never failed to reach the weekend.
1: Australia: Delta Goodrem – Eclipse
Jury: 150 | Televote: 108 | Overall: 258
The Eurovision Song Contest consists of so many elements. So many things can make or break an entry – vocals, staging, lighting, angles. But sometimes, you can succeed purely on raw, undeniable star power. Delta Goodrem, Australia’s star entry for this year’s Eurovision, just has it. The experience she has and the sheer command of the stage and her voice just puts her a level above her competition.
Despite The Model seeing this as a jury friendly entry, Australia almost won the Audience Poll – a simply phenomenal indication of its chances, even if many of its supporters had flown from Down Under to come and see her. Outside of the data, what gave me belief in Delta was how the closing moment went down in the arena. When she went up, the crowd went up even higher. The Model has this as the best entry tonight, and it could have a chance of being the best on Saturday, too.
There you have it – The Model’s official prediction for Semi-Final Two of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026. Tonight, we’ll see whether this tool has helped us see the future – or led us up the wrong path.
This won’t be the final prediction we make, however. Using The Model, we’ll also be predicting Saturday’s Grand Final to see whether we can call the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest before it happens. Those reveals will be live on the ESC Gabe YouTube stream first, with the full results on ESC Insight almost immediately afterwards.
The ten qualifiers The Model predicts for the Grand Final are:
- Australia
- Ukraine
- Denmark
- Malta
- Bulgaria
- Romania
- Czechia
- Norway
- Cyprus
- Albania
We’ll see if those ten are correct tonight, and we’ll see you on Saturday for the big one – the final prediction of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 from The Model.