In the early hours of Friday morning, the European Broadcasting Union released the running order for the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest Grand Final. The songs will perform in the following order.
The running order for the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest Grand Final (Image: EBU)
Our analysis will start by looking at the favourite to win the Eurovision Song Contest. Finland’s ‘Liekinheitin’ has for months had the expectation of being the one to beat all Eurovision season since winning Finland’s National Final in February. That expectation has now been telegraphed as far as it possibly can.
Burning Up The Stage
The greatest thing about Finland’s win chances is what comes immediately before Finland. ‘Viva Moldova’ is comfortably the most fun, most enjoyable, most pro-Europe and pro-Eurovision entry that we have in the entire Song Contest. It goes down an absolute storm in the arena, being the landslide winner of the Eurovision Audience Poll on Monday evening and even recording the highest decibel meter reading of all competing acts on Tuesday.
No song gets the crowd going any more than ‘Viva Moldova’ and Satoshi’s showmanship.
But Satoshi is not a favourite to win the Eurovision Song Contest. Finland is. Being favourite means that you have expectation. All eyes are on you, nobody wants to miss it. What Moldova does being just before Finland is ensures that every single person in that audience is absolutely on board with the Contest – everybody has been partying hard, cheering hard, they are as warmed up as they could possibly ever could be. And then comes the favourite to win the entire thing, riding this huge crescendo wave that didn’t just come from Moldova, but built from the ‘Eins, Zwei, Drei’ and the call-and-response with the audience, to Monroe’s huge powerful vocal and towering finish, before Satoshi culminates these ten minutes with the mother of all arena pops.
Coming after that is the peak moment in the show. Perfect for Finland. With Alicja’s ‘Pray’ immediately after and while her top-tier vocal gymnastics are sublime, this brings the pace down numerous notches. By contrast ‘Liekinheitin’ and its bombastic, showstopping ending is given the opportunity to close out this enormous crescendo section and be remembered all night long.
But why number 17. That’s because no matter if you are watching the show in Baku or Bergen, your commentator is going to say something like this:
“The roof is practically off the arena after Satoshi! ‘Viva Moldova’ is a tough act to follow, but if anyone can do it, it’s these two. This is the pre-contest favorite: ‘Liekinheitin’ by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen.
“Linda is a global phenomenon, the best-selling Finnish classical artist in modern history, having headlined stages across three continents. And yes, for the trivia fans at home, she is indeed the only classical virtuoso to have also appeared on the cover of Playboy.
“Now listen carefully to this one, the EBU has granted special permission for Linda to play that violin completely live tonight. Finland is performing now in song 17, the exact same draw Lordi had twenty years ago when they took the crown. With the monsters themselves backstage here in Vienna waiting for our interval act tonight, are they a good luck charm for Linda and Pete tonight? Is this Finland’s second ever winner? Let’s find out.”’
The narrative for commentators to make the jump from Lordi to Linda and Pete is an easy connection for commentators to make. Lordi have been here in Vienna in the Eurovision Village but also hanging around the press room and accredited areas, stopping for interviews and picture opportunities with the media. Now that Linda and Pete are also placed in slot 17, the same as Lordi were in Athens that fateful night, it is an absolute gimme for commentators to lean into it. Then it all culminates with that cliffhanger question. Is this the winner? The betting markets have Finland trading close to 2.0, a double your money stake, meaning that “Is this the winner?” question to the audience is fair and relevant. However it also signals to the audience at home that this is one to pay attention to, one to get behind, and have a yes/no conversation about just one song, not about comparing all 24 others.
All of this signposting might not result in a Finnish victory, but it is clear to me that this running order is crafted in Finland’s advantage, considerably so above all others. There’s a train of thought, a not impossible one, that Moldova’s off-the-charts energy steals from Finland. Possible, but given the weight of expectation that will remain with the Finnish act until Linda Lampenius begins strutting down the catwalk, it’s not that Moldova can’t compete, it’s that Finland has extra eyes and extra energy on them.
The Meaning Behind The Opening Choices
I feel a need to discuss and explain the impact and thought process as I see it for how the Eurovision Song Contest opens this year.
Denmark feels like an opener in the similar vein to the hugely successful opening songs that we had in the Semi Final. We saw on Tuesday night just how much ‘Viva Moldova’ jumped into the continent’s TV screens as a colourful reminder of the good that Eurovision can be and set the tone for the evening. On Thursday ‘Bangaranga’ and this post-modern tempo-altering mind mess of a creative composition and arguably even more creative staging. If ‘Viva Moldova’ was the reminder of what good Eurovision has been, ‘Bangaranga’ was the nod to what Eurovision can be.
‘Før Vi Går Hjem’ is a composition that allows the artist Søren Topegaard Lund to absolutely shine, a perfect marriage of song and artist that culminates into a tribal-esque intense finale that makes a bold, modern 2026 statement for what the Song Contest is today. It’s not just an uptempo song, because you could have put Germany’s Sarah Engels on first rather than second if uptempo was important. But it’s more than that, it’s a confirmation of the day’s starting point and a firm expectation to the audience of what we want Eurovision to be.
That Sarah Engels is on second follows in many ways current trends in Eurovision. The days of just simply putting a ballad second in the running order are long gone. Instead I’ve noticed since the pandemic a trend where second in the running order is reserved for songs that, while often not deemed to be in winning contention, can win from their experience in different ways. Considering that Germany has been a strong candidate for last place at the Song Contest in betting markets, I note that Germany picked up 124 votes on Monday’s Audience Poll, more than that would suggest. I attribute Sarah’s higher score here due to the fact that she is well known to the local audience, as Sarah previously scored a number two on the Austrian charts and also with Germans, that make up the second highest number of ticket sales for this year’s Contest.
A strong performance by Sarah will engage these local fans. That might not be enough to trouble the left hand side of the leaderboard, but it’s a win for her, unaffected by the stigma of drawing second.
A Running Order Of Grey
Israel is drawn third in the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest. The Israeli delegation had a producer’s choice draw position, meaning they could have been placed anywhere in the start order. In 2025, the Israeli act was drawn fourth. In 2024, Israel’s start position was fifth.
Both times our running order analysis article suggested that such a running order slot was designed to hurt Israel’s winning chance as much as geopolitical could be possible. We say the same this year. The stigma of the number two running order slot is so strong that one would receive too much critique for drawing Israel to start there. But third still should be a stinker of a running order, as later in the show is considered better, especially for televoters as viewing figures tend to increase throughout the live performance from the data we know.
However I am staggered that the decision makers for the running order, this year a process headed by Marvin Dietmann of ORF, feel comfortable being so explicit about awarding the Israeli entry another early slot for the third year in a row. I would have thought that the EBU would want to change tack this year, rather than a running order that can be interpreted as dissipating Israel’s chances on the scoreboard to reduce any conception of unfair treatment.
I must urge caution about this strategy. Firstly should this narrative of attempting to weaken Israel’s win chances through running order spread further, it could be fuel to ensure more engagement from a motivated voting support to do the opposite of that intention. And this must be coupled to the huge politically-coordinated campaign last year, and the formal warning that broadcaster KAN received this year for attempting a similar, now deemed disproportionate, get-out-the-vote strategy. The problem as we see it is that the Grand Final allows voting from the start of the show, meaning we expect a voting window could last somewhere between 150 to 180 minutes. The earlier an Israeli act is on, could that drive more engagement from those adamant to support Israel earlier in the show, and spread that support further.
I understand the old logic that later is better in the running order, but given the geopolitical tensions at Eurovision that have resulted in us losing five broadcasters, I am not personally convinced that such logic holds true in this particular example any more.
What I do feel though is that what follows Israel is also not particularly helping the cause. Belgium’s Essyla performs ‘Dancing On The Ice’ in song 4, the biggest surprise qualifier of the week and not a song that I can argue reclaims the energy away from the tension and brings us back into the joie de vivre that Eurovision can bring. Perhaps though the choice is stylistic. Essyla has described ‘Dancing On The Ice’ as about “understanding when you have difficulties or hard times in life, with always “a way to go through it.” Is it possible that, while not the bombastic return to Song Contest escapism, the song choice here is one to put forward a closing narrative on this chapter of Eurovision’s geopolitical tension.
While I have little comparison to make between the flow from Essyla’s performance to Alis’ ‘Nân’ competitively, I do note that this makes a run of three songs in a row, Israel, Belgium and Albania, where the main colour theme is silver or grey. This feels quite heavy and deep, and, for so early in the show, is not the most entertaining. It makes for a heavy juxtaposition when Greece’s Akylas brings ‘Ferto’ to the stage for song 6, easily the most technicolour performance of the evening. ‘Ferto’. In terms of energy contrast, this reminds me most of Russia’s 2012 entry ‘Party for Everybody’ which came in as song six in the Grand Final after the minimal entries of ‘Suus’, ‘Love Is Blind’ and ‘Korake ti szam’, and it brought Russia to a second place in Baku.
While this contrast that ‘Ferto’ offers makes it stand out, I can’t directly call that this is a good running order slot for one of the winning contenders. It would be notable for ‘Ferto’ to win from song 6, you have to go all the way to 2003 to find a song drawn this early to go home and take victory. Destiny’s ‘Je me casse’ was a favourite contender in 2021, but eventually came in a below-expectation seventh place in Rotterdam.
Divine Delta
The Eurovision Song Contest has scoreboard is ultimately composed of two roughly equal parts, voting by the public and voting by juries. The betting markets are resolving after Delta Goodrem’s absolutely impeccable performance in Semi Final Two to make Australia a strong favourite to win the jury side of the equation.
The running order here is a small help for Delta, because there is a side-by-side comparison that can be made of two female vocalists. Ukraine’s LELÉKA performs in slot seven, one before Delta Goodrem does. Now LELÉKA produces vocal quality of her own, with her tender voice budding and growing and bursting through 30 seconds of the longest held note in Eurovision history, one of the night’s big moments. But it doesn’t compete with Delta Goodrem’s goddess levels of captivation on the audience, which have brought the press room to rounds of applause I’ve only ever witnessed before for Slimane’s ‘Mon Amour’.
This duelling of the female is going to in theory make it easier for Delta Goodrem’s soaring vocals and grandiose presentation to be rewarded on the scoreboard. And with a Song Contest where, with larger juries, more jury consensus and jury landslide possibility actually increases rather than decreases, there is a route to victory for the land Down Under.
In a similar side-by-side comparison, after Delta and the growls of Lavina from Serbia, we have the more gentle offerings from Aidan of Malta and Daniel Zizka from Czechia. Both Czechia and Maltas’ males perform their slower songs surrounded by panels in all direction, with Aidan’s encased by transparent LED screens and Daniel by mirrors. Lifting energy in the crescendo and taking away from Aidan, who is essentially eclipsed by two of the most perfectly clear vocalists in the entire show. Coming later, I think this comparison helps the Czech representative.
This brings us to the Contest’s most fascinating competitive production – song 12 is Bulgaria’s ‘Bangaranga’ – a zany number staged to match and bringing us an energy from the future unlike anything else in the competition. Side-by-side comparison to anything else isn’t possible, but I think the crowd will be warmed up enough from Czechia to be bangaranged. It’s going to be a moment, that is for sure.
The Second Half’s Late Night Entertainment
The United Kingdom drew a second half position, and host nation broadcaster Austria drew 25th and will close the show. Yes they are different, but they are both male, energetic, technology flavoured dance tracks, and I am not surprised to see the United Kingdom shoved very early in this second half, drawn 14th, to be pushed well away from Austria’s crowd pleaser. I’m afraid that the United Kingdom isn’t helped by the draw here, being put in-between Croatia’s cinematic excellence from LELEK and Monroe’s pitch perfect performance of ‘Regarde!’ which is striking to behold. Look Mum No Computer is doing something very different, but has a tough act to follow to impress in this powerful window.
What I find to be a particularly striking part of the second half running order, favourites Finland excepted, is those last few songs and why they would be so late. Romania is 24, as late as possible in the draw. I note that ‘Choke Me’ has been a number heavily critiqued for its lyrical content, and there’s an argument I’ll certainly listen to that questions how suitable it is for family entertainment. A running order of 24 here pushes Romania as late as possible and maybe that’s enough time for the youngest of the youngest generations of our Eurovision fans to be tucked up in bed before Alexandra’s incredibly powerful, but perhaps fearsome, performance of ‘Choke Me’.
I feel the same about Norway in 23. During rehearsals artist Jonas Lovv revealed that the EBU asked for his performance to be toned down to make it more family-friendly, with less groin-grabbing from the Norwegian contestant. Jonas’ performance is naturally raunchy, and with a second half draw on the cards it makes sense to move it to later in the show. He is preceded by Sal Da Vinci from Italy. Now feel free to disagree with me on this, but our connoisseur of Neapolitan melodies also feels like a late evening act, something charming in a wholly different way as the party keeps going. And performing in 22 during a Eurovision Grand Final is still relatively early in Sanremo terms.
What is notable about the back third of this Eurovision running order is that it lacks any clear favourite. It would have been possible to have drawn some of those Audience Poll big hitters like Bulgaria, Moldova, France or Finland late, but instead we see a show that from the audience point of view seems to be lacking in those big hitters that can attack the scoreboard from a late draw. Can somebody come through the pack to score better than expected from catching the zeitgeist at the end of the party? It’s not impossible for that not to be Austria, roared on by locals supporting a top 10 hit that everybody knows the dance routine to.
Percentages But Perceptions
The most important thing in the Eurovision Song Contest is the song. The next most important thing is the performance. In comparison to these two factors, running order is many magnitudes less important, nobody wins the Song Contest by just having a good running order slot alone.
When I’m pushed, I always state that, in the best and worst case scenarios, we are looking at most a boost or drop of between 5%-10% based on the running order of your success chances at the Song Contest. However we hope to have explained that this is more complicated than later is better, and there are runs throughout the show that are allowing certain favourites the chance to gain momentum.
Later today the ESC Insight daily podcast comes out. You will hear my live reaction to this running order recorded in the middle of the Viennese night. It might have taken me a minute or two, but you’ll notice my absolute shock at some of the decisions. My shock at Israel’s early draw. My shock at Essyla having to follow Noam on stage. My shock at how Greece is all alone for fun Eurovision entries in that first show block, or how I see see that run of nations from United Kingdom to France to Moldova to Finland – giving ‘Liekinheitin’ a draw so perfectly poised that only a scriptwriter could write.
This past year saw intense discussions about the rules of the Eurovision Song Contest, and the aim of the measures eventually introduced were to “strengthen trust”, with a “paramount importance” to the “neutrality and integrity” of the Eurovision Song Contest.
Knowing what we know from research about the impact of running order bias, and knowing there are extra eyes on how this 2026 Song Contest goes, I know that these words shouldn’t just apply to voting regulations. The entire Contest needs to demonstrate neutrality and fairness, this year more than any year, so every participating broadcaster feels the running order is there to make the best and most diverse show – and nothing else. I do hope that this running order by itself doesn’t open up Pandora’s box of geopolitical fairness.
And that’s especially because all forecasts, including The Model, have been predicting a relatively low Eurovision winning margin all season long. If it is a close Contest, those final few percentage points might make or break victory in Vienna.
The time for speculation is over. There’s 25 performances out there to do their best. Let the Eurovision Song Contest begin.