The last two editions of the Eurovision Song Contest have seen the participation of Israel as one of the most significant talking points. It has been met with protest in many countries, not least on the ground in both Malmö and Basel, and it has clouded over a Song Contest that would love to be escapism – “to show the world as it could be” – as Eurovision Director Martin Green has repeatedly claimed.
But escapism is no longer an option. The 2024 edition of Eurovision saw numerous acts, including Windows95man from Finland and Norway’s Gåte, consider their participation after winning their National Final, and they each were one of ten acts that co-signed a statement in the build-up to that edition which called for an immediate ceasefire.
By the 2025 edition, some of the focus moved from artist to broadcaster, with the Spanish, Irish and Slovene broadcasters requesting that Israel’s participation in the Eurovision Song Contest be discussed at the EBU level. Following a General Assembly of broadcasters in July this year, which the EBU statement said included “a constructive exchange of views” over an “increasingly sensitive” topic with “wide diversity of opinions”, a commitment was made for an in-depth dialogue with the EBU’s member broadcasters.
That process has now concluded. The conclusions of the commissioned report and dialogue have led EBU President Delphine Ernotte Cunci to state that “it would not be possible to reach a consensual position” regarding KAN’s participation in the seventieth anniversary show in Vienna.
The same statement also confirmed that an extraordinary meeting will be held online, in November, for EBU members to ultimately decide on Israeli participation.
We already know that there is a division of opinion across participating broadcasters. Those broadcasters include the three above but also the Dutch broadcaster AVROTROS, the Flemish-speaking VRT in Belgium (which represents Belgium in alternate years with BRTF). Many other broadcasters, such as the BBC, Sweden’s SVT and Poland’s TVP, have released statements that they are working with the EBU on their investigation and discussions for the time being, not committing to how they will vote. Others, such as SBS from Australia and France Télévisions, have confirmed their intention to participate in Eurovision, without that being dependent on the results of this upcoming vote. Danish broadcaster DR will only vote against Israeli participation if they do not “comply with the rules and regulations.”
Having such a vote on participation on one particular broadcaster, and therefore one particular country, has never happened in Song Contest history, and is a question that will have implications in the real world beyond any three minutes in the spotlight.
This article attempts to act as a fortune teller, presenting a hypothesis for the future based on the direction the vote leads us.
We have two options. One where broadcasters decide that Israel is included in the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest, and one where they are excluded.
If Israel Remains In Eurovision
Should the decision ultimately land that Israel should be a part of the Eurovision Song Contest going forward, the most notable fallout of that is that we should expect these statements from broadcasters threatening boycotts to be fulfilled. As a minimum, assuming Spanish, Slovene, Irish and Dutch withdrawals from the 2026 Song Contest, that would take our number of participants down to 33 unless new countries were to join.
Assuming the normal model of the Song Contest, with the now Big 4 and host country qualifying automatically to the Grand Final, that would result in Semi Finals of 14 countries competing for ten spots in the Grand Final, a near farcical ratio.
That will obviously come with a drop in revenue, especially as the Spanish and Dutch broadcasters are amongst the biggest financial contributors to the Song Contest. Either participation fees will increase, risking further withdrawals in the short- and long-term, or the Contest will have to downscale away from the world-leading spectacle it is today. Financial risk could also come from the difficulty to find sponsors. Would sponsors, particularly local sponsors in Austria, be comfortable seeing their name alongside a Contest that will likely struggle to see positive headlines for another season?
Because yes, as we see this future we most certainly predict that Israeli participation will dominate the media headlines much like it has done in recent years. No matter how the Song Contest wishes to promote “United By Music” as the official slogan, we will once again be entering a Contest where the world’s media will seek to divide the continent, overshadowing the music and performances with talk of politics and prejudice.
This also has the likelihood of impacting the voting in the competition. Israel was second in the televote for the 2024 competition, and was the televote victor last year. Our analysis of the limited data available on the 2025 competition gave an estimate for Israel’s televote percentage across participating countries as being around 18%. With 26 songs competing in a Eurovision Grand Final one does not need to score a majority of votes to be the people’s champion. In a narrative where the media battleground is Israel vs. The Rest, it becomes easy to see how Israel can secure a significant minority of votes to take the televoting crown again, and be in contention for overall victory. And we can say this before we have heard a note of the song.
An Arena In Focus
An Israeli presence will also have organisational impacts on Eurovision itself in the host city, and without question we will see protests to Israel’s participation in the host city of Vienna in the run up to, and during, the Song Contest itself. What is particularly notable about the 2026 Contest is that it is to take place in the Wiener Stadthalle. The Stadthalle isn’t a city centre location; it is situated in the Rudolfsheim-Fünfhaus district to the city’s west. This district is Vienna’s most diverse, with 2025 data suggesting 56.4% of the district’s population have international connections, with large Serbian and Turkish communities as well as a significant recent influx from Syria.
This diverse blend population in many ways mirrors the demographics that lived around Malmö, host city of the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest. It was reported by Swedish police that 12,000 protesters were in Malmö the day of Israel’s Semi Final that year to protest their participation, marching from Stortorget in the city centre five and a half kilometres south to the Malmö Arena.
The difference from Vienna’s Contest to Malmö’s is the arena location. Malmö Arena is in the newly developed Hyllie suburb, surrounded by shopping centres, swish sustainable apartment complexes and the train station to neighbouring Denmark, a world away from Malmö’s strongest anti-Israel sentiment. Instead, the Wiener Stadthalle is in the mix of the city’s most diverse community, and the arena itself is likely to be an even larger flashpoint for protest than the 2024 edition was. More protests in and around the arena will significantly increase security costs for the organisers.
One final repercussion is how the narrative of Israeli participation doesn’t just stop with the EBU and the broadcasters; it also impacts each and every artist wanting to perform at the Song Contest. This is where it can lead to not just clouding over the coverage in May 2026, but also all the build-up to it and every National Final. Will tabloid journalists feel the need to ask every competing artist to give their opinions? Will pro-boycott artists dominate the discussions and end up winning National Final tickets to Vienna? Or will it arise that some nations need to change artists or withdraw at late notice because of who they end up selecting and what they end up saying?
Seeing the above list of possible impacts should Israel be part of the Eurovision Song Contest next year may make some readers assume that a world where Israel is not included in next year’s participants would be better for the Song Contest. But the fallout for the Eurovision Song Contest should Israeli exclusion take place for the Vienna edition will have its own set of problems.
If Israel Is Excluded From Eurovision
Firstly we need to note the obvious impact on the participation list for next year, that an Israeli expulsion will automatically reduce our participant list by one, and how this impacts the size of the Contest and revenue streams from membership fees to the EBU.
It is also possible that any Israeli expulsion could lead to legal challenges and repercussions. It is notable that the current statements from broadcasters such as Ireland and the Netherlands have been directed at the political – landing squarely at Israel’s destruction of Gaza and lack of press freedom to report on the conflict as reasons for Eurovision withdrawal. This, rather than any technicality about Israel’s state broadcaster KAN, is the reason this issue is heading to such an unpreceded vote. This means any decision the EBU collectively makes now is a political decision.
We note that KAN have already published a statement in reaction to the vote taking place, where they believed a 75% majority would be needed for this vote to pass. However, the EBU have since confirmed the vote is a simple majority vote. The discrepancy comes as the 75% supermajority is needed to remove a broadcaster from the EBU entirely, whereas this vote is purely on the participation of the Eurovision Song Contest. Should the final vote ratio end up somewhere between 50% and 75%, as has been speculated, then that may lead to uproar, further protest and legal threats. After all, can you be a fair and equal part of the EBU if you can’t make use of all its benefits?.
While many countries have set their stall out to be in favour of Israeli expulsion from Eurovision, it would be unwise to assume that some of the continent’s quieter broadcasters today do not have sentiments they want to share that agree with Israel’s participation. In our look at how Israel was treated internationally by other organisations we noted that both German and Italian delegations deciding on whether Israel should be granted access to the EU’s Horizon research fund were the barrier to a vote passing to remove Israeli access. Furthermore, at both the Venice Biennale and Frankfurt Book Fair, organisers were steadfast in their response to allowing Israel to participate.
Back in 2008, then Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel stated that ensuring the security of Israel was “part of my nation’s Staatsräson”, or reason of state, and part therefore of modern Germany’s obligation. This gave Germany a “closer connection to Israel” in comparison to many other nations. While not a constitutional obligation, much of German policy towards Israel is based on this rhetoric that it is in Germany’s best interests for Israel’s protection and inclusion on the world stage. This September, on a visit to Spain, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Germany and Spain had “divergent views” and “different conclusions” regarding their approaches to Israel. In the context of the Eurovision Song Contest, German Culture Minister Wolfram Weiner is opposed to an Israeli boycott. He is quoted saying that it goes “against the fundamental idea” of the Song Contest, that it heads into a world of “cancel culture” and that because of Eurovision’s beginnings emerging in a post World War Two landscape, it should avoid being a “platform for exclusion.”
In Italy, we note that in 2024 public broadcaster RAI distanced themselves from “stop genocide” comments by Sanremo participant Ghali, which resulted in RAI CEO Roberto Sergio giving a statement during the show that they were “with the people of Israel”. However, on September 23rd we learnt that three of RAI’s seven board members had made a statement pushing for the Italian broadcaster to support a boycott of Israel should they be at the Song Contest. Not a majority of RAI’s board, but perhaps a strong sense of changed direction that may shift their policy.
We note that comments, albeit not directly from either Italian or German broadcasters, have been made suggesting their withdrawal from Eurovision if political motivations lead to Israel’s removal from the Song Contest. Obviously, losing two Big 5 nations would be a huge blow to the reputation and reach of the Song Contest, and while low, the chance of Israeli exclusion leading to others withdrawing in solidarity is a non-zero possibility.
There is also the consideration of how this impacts the host country, Austria. Austrian political leadership is positive of Israeli participation in Vienna, with Foreign Minister Beate Meinl-Reisinge “deeply concerned” about the split in opinions across Europe. She believes a boycott of Israel would “preclude opportunities for important dialogue” and ultimately “deepen the discord” between nations. Austrian broadcaster ORF has also conducted a vote at its board level that agreed to continue supporting Israeli participation at Eurovision, although not with a full majority.
Similarly, while there is no public indication that supporting Israel’s participation in Eurovision would be a condition for Austria to host or even take part in the competition, managing this relationship is vital to ensure that the Austrian government, broadcaster, and public are on board with the Song Contest coming to town. Political pressure, notably from the newly formed group Solidarity Israel, is pushing to ensure that all previous sponsors of Vienna’s 2015 Contest agree to sponsor again this year only if that is conditional on Israeli participation. With over 700 members just weeks after forming, this group insists that “the city’s involvement can only be linked to Israel’s full participation.”
Away from the participants, another fallout of Eurovision’s removal of Israeli presence in Vienna is also evident in their central sponsorship. One of Eurovision’s most well-known sponsors is Moroccan Oil, the cosmetics company behind the switch of Eurovision’s red carpet to turquoise. Moroccan Oil is an Israeli company, and despite its global reach today, over 80% of the products come through one factory to the north of Jerusalem.
Now I am not implying that Moroccan Oil’s sponsorship of Eurovision is based around Israeli participation in the Song Contest – as a growing business looking for exposure and marketing opportunities in Europe, Eurovision provides a great platform. But pressure within Israel could easily result in pressure to withdraw from all relationships with the Eurovision Song Contest, superseding any of today’s commercial interests.
As it stands today, no other major international organisation has made the step to remove Israeli participation in the sense that the EBU will now consider. The Eurovision Song Contest’s history has been dominated by stories of togetherness and of bringing the continent together. Is the Eurovision Song Contest an organisation both robust enough and brave enough to be the first to make such steps of exclusion?
Losing Narratives
Time would tell if others were to follow suit, but without doubt a decision to exclude Israel lead to bigger headlines in the world’s press, and more criticism from those preaching inclusivity, than we have ever seen before. Rather than being discussed today through quotes by culture ministers and foreign secretaries, it’s likely to go even higher up the political food chain. Are we prepared for that to escalate further, and are we prepared for the fallout from those supporting Israel’s presence at the Song Contest to reach new levels? The Song Contest will be the top headline across most of the continent, and this vote will be weaponised by those furious that Israel has lost one of its key cultural places to shine. We will not be in control of that narrative.
Ultimately, Eurovision loses the claim that it is an organisation above politics if Israel is excluded. And Eurovision will have to defend that for a long time. The removal of Russia from the Song Contest following the invasion of Ukraine, came at a time when Eurovision was one of many organisations that excluded Russian participation from the world stage. Removal of Russia was in keeping with the rest of the world order. The removal of Israel at this time would not be that, and would weaken those overarching values of unity.
The removal of Israel’s broadcaster KAN from the Eurovision Song Contest may also have another knock-on effect. Before the new public broadcaster was launched in 2017, a political deal, spearheaded by Benjamin Netanyahu, separated the news section of the broadcaster into a separate body. This set up is a concern for the EBU, which deems news content to be a requirement for membership. The broadcaster received temporary membership in late 2017 after some news programming, won in 2018, and made assurances thereafter to “follow the EBU guidelines” in order to host Eurovision in 2019.
Yet independent news content on KAN has been threatened repeatedly, worrying many at the European Broadcasting Union. EBU Director General, Noel Curran, said in November 2024 that “public service broadcasting in Israel is under sustained political attack…from a Government that wants to either get more control over it or shut down the broadcaster altogether.”
We know that despite these threats, that the Israeli Government Advertising Agency invested significantly in promoting their 2025 Eurovision entry. While independent news coverage within KAN may not be in the Israeli government interest, a good appearance at Eurovision is something we have clear evidence of political importance.
So let us hypothesise. If Israel is removed from the Song Contest through this upcoming vote, the main political force for KAN to keep their independent news department disappears. Would the Israeli government finally follow through with any threats to remove KAN’s right to produce news content?
And this would be bad for Israel as a nation. Since 2022 Israel has dropped from 86th to 112th on the World Press Freedom Index. According to Reporters Without Borders, since the war in Gaza there has been increased pressure on journalists, editorial independence and disinformation campaigns from a government level, as well as the devastating reality that close to 200 journalists have been killed by the Israel Defence Forces. Losing KAN’s news independence would take issues of freedom of speech in Israel to whole new lows.
And finally, one of the other aspects to consider is the cultural loss of losing Israel itself to the Song Contest. That is going to be poignant with Vienna’s hosting in 2026 and the 70th anniversary of the Song Contest. With four wins and nine podium positions since their debut in 1973, Israel has been one of the nations most integral to the Song Contest. Of course exclusion today does not mean Israeli Eurovision history disappears, but it might make it more difficult for our community to publicly recognise how trailblazing Dana International’s victory was in 1998, or celebrate the creativity and self-empowerment of ‘Toy’ that won in 2018. Do these memorable victories, symbols of hope, change and progressiveness when they lifted the trophy, instead turn into dark blemishes as we narrate Eurovision’s timeline?
Both Options Lead To Disaster
There are two possible outcomes that the vote of EBU members will decide. And whether the needle swings to Israel remaining in the Song Contest or is removed, either way, we will have to live with the fallout.
The conclusion is that, regardless of whether the result is inclusion or exclusion, any outcome will be an absolute mess for the EBU to deal with. We know when the EBU President describes discussions as “unprecedented diversity of views”, which have led the EBU to this secret online ballot, that disagreements between broadcasters were so vast and arguments so strongly worded, that any possibility of consensus was impossible to reach. Holding this vote is a last resort, a desperate attempt to decide and deal with the damage, and one where the outcome is uncertain.
And damage there will be. None of the possible outcomes for what is to come will lead to agreement or a better world overnight. And be it through losing sponsors, losing its higher purpose status above politics, or in losing some of the Contest’s most consistent delegations, there is no escaping that whatever decision is made takes the Eurovision Song Contest on a backward trajectory. We all have to be prepared for that.
But, with views so heated and division so strong, and Israel’s government so invested in the importance of Eurovision participation, just remember that wherever the vote lies will not be the end of the drama.
Be prepared, when the final decision comes, whatever that decision may be, it’s going to get ugly.