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Eurovision Newsletter: The Competition Heats Up As Rehearsals Loom… Written by on May 4, 2021

With the live shows looming, a handful of favourites have already moved ahead of the pack for this year’s Contest. But will things look the same after the rehearsals kick off? John Lucas explores the current state of play in the latest edition of the ESC Insight newsletter.

With rehearsals scheduled to begin next Saturday (8th May), Malta continue to sit at the top of the bookmaker rankings, with average odds of 3/1 for the island nation to finally claim their first Eurovision victory. However, other metrics suggest that Destiny could face a competitive race for the trophy.

Fan club polling

Eurovision fan club OGAE traditionally hold the largest poll of the season, with members from their 43 national chapters delivering their verdicts. With 21 clubs having voted so far, the current leaders are Switzerland, with Malta in second and France in third.

OGAE polls have had mixed successes in previous years. They predicted victories for Sweden in 2012, Denmark in 2013 and Israel in 2018, but their results don’t always match exactly with wider public tastes. Italy won the OGAE poll in 2015, 2017 and 2019, while Sweden came out on top in 2014 and France in 2016.

Streaming figures

Finally, in terms of raw streaming figures, the runaway frontrunners so far are Italy. According to Spotify Måneskin’s entry has been streamed over 23 million times – almost double the closest runner up from Sweden. However, it should be noted that both Italy and Sweden invariably perform well here due to the high popularity of their national finals.

Of the other favourites, France are in 5th position with 3.9 million streams, while Switzerland are currently 10th with 2.1 million and Malta 18th with 1.2 million. However, the relative size of each country’s population should also be taking into account here. Malta only has around 500,000 permanent residents, after all!

Will any of these figures bear out in three weeks time? Underdogs have made headway before once the live performances come into play, so everything remains very much in play. Stay tuned…

You can read more about this week’s news by signing up to the ESC Insight Newsletter. Read this week’s edition online here.

About The Author: John Lucas

A writer and content marketing professional with a passion for getting lost in strange cities and a strange fascination with micro states, John has been with ESC Insight since 2015 and has also had his writing featured in publications including The Guardian, Popjustice and So So Gay. Tweetable @JLucas86.

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