With rehearsals scheduled to begin next Saturday (8th May), Malta continue to sit at the top of the bookmaker rankings, with average odds of 3/1 for the island nation to finally claim their first Eurovision victory. However, other metrics suggest that Destiny could face a competitive race for the trophy.
Fan club polling
Eurovision fan club OGAE traditionally hold the largest poll of the season, with members from their 43 national chapters delivering their verdicts. With 21 clubs having voted so far, the current leaders are Switzerland, with Malta in second and France in third.
OGAE polls have had mixed successes in previous years. They predicted victories for Sweden in 2012, Denmark in 2013 and Israel in 2018, but their results don’t always match exactly with wider public tastes. Italy won the OGAE poll in 2015, 2017 and 2019, while Sweden came out on top in 2014 and France in 2016.
Finally, in terms of raw streaming figures, the runaway frontrunners so far are Italy. According to Spotify Måneskin’s entry has been streamed over 23 million times – almost double the closest runner up from Sweden. However, it should be noted that both Italy and Sweden invariably perform well here due to the high popularity of their national finals.
Of the other favourites, France are in 5th position with 3.9 million streams, while Switzerland are currently 10th with 2.1 million and Malta 18th with 1.2 million. However, the relative size of each country’s population should also be taking into account here. Malta only has around 500,000 permanent residents, after all!
Will any of these figures bear out in three weeks time? Underdogs have made headway before once the live performances come into play, so everything remains very much in play. Stay tuned…