Here at ESCInsight HQ, we like to put on a front for the website; that we are the balanced reporters, the friendly team that work together to seek and bring you the in-depth, the serious issues. Behind the scenes though, we are actually a rather competitive (and sometimes petty) crew. Sharleen is all about the betting odds, Ewan has all the stats, John draws up the graphs. We all think we are ‘in the know’ so to speak.
Therefore in 2014, before we all feel the effects of ‘Eurovision Bubble’ and rehearsals overload, we are giving our readers a little more insight into our ESC Insight crew by gazing into our Ikea lamp stolen from Valentina Monetta last year crystal ball to see who WE think our potential winners and losers for 2014 will be.
In the nature of fairness (and competitiveness amongst ourselves) we will give you a summary of our results, as well as declare our individual hands for our predicted 10 qualifiers of each semi, and who we believe will be in the Top 10 on finals night. Whoever amongst our team predicts the most correct will then have bragging rights for the next year as ESCInsight Prediction 2014 King or Queen. And to whoever gets it most wrong, well, feel free to ridicule them in the comments below.
Semi 1 qualifier predictions:
Clearly the trickier of the semis to predict and featuring a large number of traditional qualifying countries, points were strewn across the board for the final spots to create both a tie for the 10th spot and the list featuring 2 nul-points results.
Ben Robertson – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine
Dr Eurovision – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Hungary, Iceland, Montenegro, Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine
Ewan Spence – Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Latvia, Moldova, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine
John Egan – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine
Samantha Ross – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Hungary, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine
Sharleen Wright – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Moldova, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine
We drew our line in the sand too Valentina, and its nul points for San Marino (and Portugal) from ESCInsight
ESC INSIGHT PREDICTS…
Armenia / Azerbaijan / Belgium / Estonia / Hungary /
Montenegro / Netherlands / Russia / Sweden / Ukraine
(note: Estonia selected on countback based on Top 10 predictions for final between Estonia, Iceland and Moldova)
Semi 2 qualifier predictions:
Our second semi results, unlike semi 1 provided us with a very clear cut Top 10 qualifying list. Predictions were similar across the team, with just one song a clear bottom ranking, scoring just one point.
Ben Robertson – Austria, Finland, Georgia, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, Malta, Norway, Poland, Romania
Dr Eurovision – Austria, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Macedonia, Malta, Norway, Poland, Romania
Ewan Spence – Austria, Belarus, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Lithuania, Malta, Norway, Romania
John Egan – Austria, Belarus, Finland, Georgia, Greece, Malata, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovenia
Samantha Ross – Austria, Finland,Grece, Israel, Macedonia, Malta, Norway, Poland, Romania, Switzerland
Sharleen Wright – Austria, Finland, Greece, Israel, Lithuania, Malta, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovenia
Switzerlands’ Sebalter will the hunter for a cheap flight on Friday according to Insight
ESC INSIGHT PREDICTS…
Austria / Finland / Greece / Ireland / Israel /
Lithuania / Malta / Norway / Poland /Romania
Final Top 10 predictions:
Some interesting figures came to light amongst the ESC Insight team in the final round, with points thrown all over the shop and only one song managing to feature on everyones’ list. We should also note the lack of Russia in anyones’ top 10 for 2014 – let’s see if the whole team will hang their heads in shame come Sunday morning for its lack of foresight.
Ben Robertson – Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Malta, Romania, Spain
Dr Eurovision – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Denmark, Greece, Malta, Montenegro, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom
Ewan Spence – Austria, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Greece, Norway, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, United Kingdom
John Egan – Armenia, Austria, Estonia, Greece, Iceland, Malta, Norway, Romania, Sweden, United Kingdom
Samantha Ross – Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Malta, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom
Sharleen Wright – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Malta, Romania, Spain, United Kingdom
Greece, the only country to have Freaky Fortune and rise up to a clean sweep in ESCInsights’ 2014 Top 10 predictions
Not everyone could agree on a final 10 for the team however, and due to a tie, we had to settle for a top 12.
ESC INSIGHT PREDICTS…
Armenia / Azerbaijan / Austria / Denmark / Greece / Hungary /
Malta / Norway / Romania / Spain / Sweden / United Kingdom
(Note: Top 12 based on equal prediction points for the 10th spot between Hungary, Spain and Sweden)
Having FOMO over the prediction game? Feel free to drop us your predictions list below.
You have 6 qualifiers from the first half in Semi 2, that’s impossible!
Well, nothing is truly impossible. Probable? well, thats more debatable. I guess the consensus predictions point more towards the fact that only 5 acts are not going to qualify from semi 2, so for me its about eliminating those who don’t feel likely to get the points rather than stating those who deserve to qualify.
I’m surprised there are quite a few who think Sweden will miss the top 10. I think it’s very likely it’ll finish in the top 5. Glad to see many thinking the Netherlands will qualify.
im shock to see 3 people who think ireland won’t qualify :O
Sharleen has only nine qualifiers for semi 1.
The only thing that really surprised me in this article was that you guys had Switzerland not qualifying. In my opinion, Switzerland is a definite qualifier and I’ve felt that way ever since I saw the draw.
Ok, I see that Sharleen’s unlisted qualifier is Iceland.
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@PurpleK. It’s an interesting methodological conundrum. (P.S. Still eagerly awaiting your next video. (P.P.S. Those American datestamps are frustrating.))
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I know it’s prediction not preference, but I thought some details worth noting.
__Semis__
Albania defended by Ewan (over the Low Countries).
Georgia defended by Ben and John (over Israel).
Switzerland defended by Samantha (over Ireland and Lithuania).
Poland having broad support. (Yay!)
Flavour factions — Divided opinion filling similar roles:
Iceland / Latvia
Ireland / Slovenia ( / Switzerland)
Macedonia / Belarus
__Final__
Already noted but worth emphasising: Every act except Greece ranks worse than 10th by at least one person.
Italy and France dismissed by all. (I guess language counts quite strongly against them outside of ballads.)
Iceland defended by John (over Azerbaijan and Denmark).
With no other information, but assuming a token penalty for sharing qualification with one of the others, I get a tie break :: Sweden, then Hungary, then Spain.
* By “qualification” I meant top-ten-ness.
* …although there’s nothing significant about the top ten in the final, so playing the same game for all listed acts gives —
1: Greece
2: UK
3-6: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Malta
7-8: Romania, Norway
9: Austria
10: Sweden
11: Hungary
12: Spain
13-15: Estonia, Belgium, Ukraine [ EBU straddling the divide 🙂 ]
16-17: Montenegro, Iceland
Hi Zolan, thanks for picking up my missing Iceland – its now fixed.
The top 10 certainly isnt designed in a way of determining order of the top 10 itself – our team was asked to just predict the top 10 in no particular order.
I think if we were asked to give our top 3/5 rankings for instance, none of us would be in agreeance at all.
I will defend my viewpoint of Sweden not being a top 10 finalist in the guidebook soon. But hell, I will give you a taster. I can’t see any reason for it ranking so high in OGAE or any other lists other than the backstory she has. My feeling is, the song is rather bland, its not even the best of the female ballads (Azer IMO takes that honour), IMO its not the best of the Scandis either (Norway, Denmark). Presentation also counts; can’t see anything special there, and nor is Sanna. No-one in Europe outside fans and Sweden/Scandi would know or care about her backstory.
There we have it – I think its overrated.
Let’s watch me fall flat on my face in a fortnight (but preferably laughing as I pick up my tidy lay bet).
Sharleen — Yes, I know they’re not meant as rankings 😉
But just as Ewan can say ten acts are more strongly predicted to be in the top ten than the rest, I can do the same at smaller divisions. (Albeit using less data and flaky voodoo.)
The fact that it resembles a place-ranking contrary to common expectations is an amusing side-effect.
Oh, you’ve reminded me to ask — I don’t know what “guidebook” refers to or which to site to expect it on.
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Now, combining Kylie’s observation with my tie-break approach suggests that Lithuania could be replaced by Macedonia in the 2nd semi, matching Paul’s prediction.
Our unofficial guidebook to Eurovision 2014 will be released via the website in a few days.
Its our annual look at each artist, country stats, song details and reviews from Ewan, Sam and myself on each song.
Make sure to download it!
Samantha, I’m really shocked that you think Ireland won’t make it. I have big respect for your opinion, so now I’m officially worried.
Why not be daring? Why not be giving the entire prediction from the left side of the scoreboard ;-)? In ranking order? This would be my TOP 13:
01. DENMARK
02. BELGIUM
03. ROMANIA
——————–
04. Austria
05. Ukraine
06. Estonia
07. Armenia
08. France
09. Malta
10. Azerbaijan
——————–
11. Hungary
12. Montenegro
13. Norway
Other possibilities for placings between 9th and 13th:
00. Greece
00. Netherlands
00. Spain
00. Sweden
00. United Kingdom
Sharleen? I do agree with Estonia. I’m surprised Belgium is mentioned only twice. And why is France failing. I think France will do better than, for instance Greece. Could be this year’s “Jedward”.
The UK? I like the song…..but I hope singer Molly can bring about some necessary charm and warmth on screen (Remember Katrina & The Waves?). Same goes for Sanna and Carl.
I also took the liberty of looking at the TOP 10’s of the editors and how many times they were mentioned:
6 times – Greece
5 times – Denmark
5 times – Armenia
5 times – Malta
5 times – Azerbaijan
5 times – United Kingdom
4 times – Romania
4 times – Austria
3 times – Hungary
3 times – Norway
3 times – Spain
2 times – Belgium
2 times – Ukraine
2 times – Estonia
1 times – Montenegro
1 times – Iceland
@Gert. In the final top 10s, Norway is mentioned 4 times, and Sweden 3 times. (Just in case you are using those numbers for something)
Excuse me, has everyone forgotten that Germany takes part as well? Elaiza is such a lovely trio with such a charming song!
imo, I think its a good year across the board for the Big 5. Whilst I dont see Italy, France and Germany coming top 10, I dont think we’ll see them last either. I’m predicting middle range (around 13-20) for those 3.
Can’t believe you’ve not got Israel in there – it’s my each-way bet this year and I think Italy will do well off the juries at the very least.
OrangeVorty – I totally agree with you on Israel in terms of quality (my personal second-favorite this year), but the fact that Israel has under-performed on the scoreboard recently, even with strong songs, gave me a pit of pause. In my heart, I want it to OWN the competition, but the nation’s recent results made me skittish. Of course, it all depends on their staging and presentation, so who knows what will happen?