The running order for the Eurovision Song Contest is no longer decided by a random draw. Since 2013 songs are drawn into either the first half or second half of the show, and the production team from the host country decide on the final exact position. The EBU have oversight over this, but in the first three years of implementation the EBU have not had to step in and alter host country suggestions.
A Textbook Example Of The Björkman Eurovision
Sweden’s most recent hosting in 2013 was the debut for this technique and comes off the success at their National Final, Melodifestivalen. The Executive Producer of Melodifestivalen is Christer Björkman who was Contest Producer in 2013 and also this year. The result of this running order is of little surprise to those looking back through Björkman’s history.
The choice of Finland as an opener is particularly obvious. ‘Sing It Away’ is a contemporary and uplifting track that will get the fans buzzed and kick off the competition. It also offers little challenge to the casual listener, giving a safe entry into the eclectic world that follows. ‘Shine’ was used in a similar way in 2013, and Melodifestivalen often openers with common-structure pop songs (e.g. ‘I’ll Be Fine’) or returning artists (Samir & Victor, Yohio, David Lindgren) to provide a familiar introduction to the show.
Quoted for SVT, Christer Björkman has spoken about how his role is to ‘give each song the maximum space to stick out’ during the course of competition, to attempt to nullify any effects of running order bias. The reference point for this is to make the show ‘so interesting that viewers don’t get tired’. This leads to the conclusion that a saw-tooth and variety show approach is the way forward. There is little surprise continuing in Semi Final One to see us move to rap from Greece, female schlager-lite from Moldova, four-chord male power pop from Hungary, female balladeering from Croatia… the contrasts go on and on.
At ESC Insight we question how both aspects of this come together. A saw-tooth approach encourages producers to save big numbers for the end of the show, building of pockets of energy in the arena. Conchita and Måns, placed late on the top half of the Grand Final, were given slots where excitement had built upwards from entrants before them. The temptation to control the running order often leaves to producers giving songs space to breathe, but also to build interest into certain tracks. It is very easy for a production team running order to exaggerate any benefits of a later running order. There are examples of that this year, as we will demonstrate later.
Christer Björkman sitting alongside Måns Zelmerlöw in Vienna last year.
Christer also has been quoted to SVT that the big problem this year was to separate the huge numbers of female pop tracks in Semi Final One. These unsurprisingly have been spread out to cover the entire running order rather than being grouped together. Tempo is certainly one criteria, as is to separate boys, girls and groups. Another likely issue for a contrasting show is staging, spreading out any songs using fireworks or other special effects to lift their performance as well as simply the numbers on stage.
For example Russia will draw headlines as already having favourite status and for ending the top half of the draw. It now comes in after San Marino’s dated dad disco number and before the Czech straight-up ballad – standing out against these with extravagant staging expected from the Russians. Again using Melodifestivalen as reference point where staging ideas are often enormous, much of the running order is dictated to ensure the technical teams have time to move everything on and off stage. Note how Wiktoria and her complex yet propless ‘Save Me’ was placed before water on stage nightmare of ‘Bada Nakna’ to minimise transition headaches.
This year Bosnia and Herzegovina offer a stage act likely to be simple and without much props other than the cello. Malta following this to end Semi Final One suggests to me a complex staging concept might have dictated Malta’s position. We note that the running order is delayed from earlier this week, without a reason given. Eurovision fans love a good scandal, but could it simply be the production team who started building inside Globen this week, giving their input on what is feasible? We may never know, but that won’t stop the speculation.
Who Rises Above The Undercurrents?
Now comes the tricky part of trying to analyse where we have the pockets of energy in the running order. What I am looking for are songs that come of the end of big crescendos in excitement and passion that helps them stand out against the songs surrounding them. Yes, a later running order is generally better (last year just seven out of twenty qualifiers came from the first half), but it is only one part of the equation.
Serbia
Serbia’s ballad ‘Goodbye (Shelter)’ is power packed with a semitone rise at the end and a fiery orchestration. As Semi Final Two builds on, this the culmination of one of the biggest builds I have seen in Eurovision running orders. Poland’s soaring yet dated ballad is placed 2nd, typical Björkman, before more ballads from Switzerland and Israel. Israel has the strongest production of these three, lifting a little bit of energy. Belarus kicks in an extra bit of tempo, but it is still fits in around the ballads rather than sticking out. However that extra pace in the beat should just give the audience, both in the arena and at home, a little boost that will make the energy of Serbia’s charismatic artist totally dominate. The extra drama has been put well into context by what comes before it, whereas if stuck in the middle of this ballad run Serbia might appear overly dramatised.
Ireland following has the potential to continue this rise, but the melody of ‘Sunlight’ has a far smaller range than the offering from the Balkans and it’s likely Serbia’s appearance will be the highlight of Semi Final Two. We would also put our best guess that after Serbia and before Ireland comes an advert break (and therefore also between the Netherlands and Armenia in the first Semi Final), and traditional theory suggests this gives more time for Serbia to be fondly remembered and do well in the final voting.
Hungary
Similar to Serbia above, Hungary is clustered in a little run of songs that one paper are different, but offer easy comparisons to viewers. Moldova’s Lidia Isac has a huge melody to tackle in ‘Falling Stars’ however the production punch as we approach the chorus is far lighter than Freddie’s ‘Pioneer’. As a direct comparison Lidia’s vocal may be technically more challenging, but Freddie’s might just be more immediate to the listener. Of the first four tracks Hungary is likely to win over Moldova for vocal, over Greece for ruggedness and Finland for pop structure, hoovering up votes in this block.
Following Hungary, the mood slows down with ballad ‘Lighthouse’ from Croatia. This feels like a breather coming on the back of ‘Pioneer’. The oh-so-Eurovision key change gives some life here, but it would all be in Nina’s hands to make it bigger than the bombastic production from the song previous.
Norway
Norway is likely to be the song adored by casual fans attending on Thursday night in a packed out Globen. With Sweden’s friendly neighbouring country bringing a slick pop production number, Swedish written of course, it already would be expected for Sweden’s 12 to hop across the border westwards in this show. The running order here makes Norway the centre of attention. Denmark is two songs ahead and already is billed as the lesser of the Scandinavian tracks this year, yet safe enough to get the crowd clapping along and supporting the three boys from Lighthouse X. Jamala’s ‘1944’ straight after is musically a huge contrast, but the vocal gymnastics of the last minute, as well as the sympathic support towards Ukraine, will keep energy high. Norway should then come along with a big neighbour country boost that will lift ‘Icebreaker’ to the tall roof of Globen. The cheers might be akin to Emmelie’s crowd roars in Malmö during Semi Final One there, only this time at a point in the show the audience are really ready for it.
If that comes down the camera this is the pop moment of the Thursday night.
And after Norway…comes Georgia. ‘Midnight Gold’ is likely to drop like a lead balloon in Stockholm with Eurovision fans casual and otherwise, helping Norway steal this section of the show.
Lost Losers In The Running Order Ocean
Switzerland
Already struggling in the bookmakers odds, drawing 3rd is going to put the dagger into Switzerland’s chances of making it out the Semi Final. It contrasts to the two songs either side by virtue of having a female rather than male singer, but that’s about all Björkman could do to mix them up. Both those male singers are likely to blow Rykka out the park, and the song production includes a far weaker ‘wall of noise’ than the harmonies in Israel’s ‘Made of Stars’ have coming on afterwards.
While visually different between the two lead singers, this is as close to direct comparison we get in the SVT running order. Between the two it is likely to disadvantage Switzerland which would struggle to compete directly with the competition.
Bulgaria
Poli Genova would be one of the artists looking for a favourable draw after her Junior Eurovision hosting duties make her an interesting name in the Song Contest bubble. However her role in this Semi Final is to bring viewers back to Earth after the overblown nature of Romania’s ‘Moment Of Silence’. Poli’s ‘If Love Was A Crime’ is a pop loop of the modern variety, and a welcome step back to something comfortable for the viewing public.
The danger here though is that Denmark immediately after gets the boost of the Scandi crowd with a similarly mainstream pop track. The hooks in ‘Soldiers of Love’ are more simple and singable than the comparatively technical Bulgarian track. Bulgaria feels like feeding back into the Scandi vibe, but less obvious in direct comparison than the Danish or Norwegian songs following on.
Estonia
The second half of each Semi Final has potentially the strongest sawtooth effect possible. Montenegro alongside Bosnia and Herzegovina are split apart around Iceland, with the ‘modern classic’ Eurovision staging sandwiched around more left-field entries. Ukraine and Georgia fulfil the same role around Norway in Semi Final Two.
Estonia’s draw is not necessarily terrible, but puts a lot of pressure on Juri Pootsmann to charm his audience. This is particularly hard coming after bubblegum colours from Austria and before the typical pop performance we are bound to get from Azerbaijan this year. Yes, Juri has the ‘space’ in the running order to stand out, but standing out with the red and black motiv might make ‘Play’ look even more sinister than it would want to be to catch voters. Estonia would have loved to be pinned around dark Montenegro or aggressive Bosnia and Herzegovina which would have normalised Estonia’s track and probably make devilish Juri more televote friendly.
Estonia might still make it, with potential for enough support from Hungary, Finland and Russia available to creep over the line, but it’s certainly got the raw deal in the second half draw.
Enough Difference In A Tight Race
Running order is something that drives Eurovision fans round and round in circles, because the impact of a good placing can elevate a song to new heights in the show and therefore bring more points. However any running order analysis needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, this is just one piece in the puzzle of who does and does not qualify. As much as number two has a bad reputation both statistically and emotionally in the Eurovision community, giving the ‘slot of death’ to diaspora favourites Greece and Poland could be seen as balancing by the fan community.
Sure being later helps but that isn’t all we have to go off in any analysis. Laura Tesoro for Belgium ending Semi Final Two is particularly interesting for example. Compared to the others around in that half of Semi Final Two, there was little to suggest she would have the role of showstopper (bigger names in the bubble like Agnete or Poli Genova would have been more obvious). However a fun number here can be a real crowd pleaser if pulled off with charisma, as Christer Björkman knows only too well.
A big question mark will lie around the Eurovision community until May 12th if Laura can deliver that charisma herself. But SVT and EBU have given her the room to try. It is with their best efforts that the running order is split to allow each artist to make the stage their own for the three minutes, even though the audience is made up of exactly the same people. As much as producers search for a magic formula, I doubt a perfectly fair space for all songs is possible when trying to make a show simultaneously entertaining. Running order bias is likely to always exist with or without the help of production teams, but it is never going to be the only decisive factor.
Now it’s time for each artist to bundle up their own energy and deliver their own three minutes of song entertainment in Stockholm. Game on.
Do you agree with our running order analysis? Are there more songs that have gone up the chances list now we haven’t mentioned, or other songs now buried in the rubble? Comment below and share your opinions.
I think Ireland’s draw all depends on Nicky’s performance on the night, if its good he will standout between both those ballad’s, if he screws up it will be a terrible draw as Serbia and Macedonia potentially have the best vocalist’s of the semi if not the whole contest itself. Considering how big Westlife where in Sweden I struggle to see SVT using Ireland as a stop gap particularly when you had Israel,Belarus,Switzerland,Poland as potential stop-gaps.
What I like about this analysis is that it offers an alternative, not too obvious, ideas. Good job for that.
I still think that the draw of the running order should be brought back… for sake of fairness and show.
I really don’t think the running order matters except to media people who want something to write about. The performances on the night will determine who makes it through to the final.
Nathan, look over https://escinsight.com/2013/01/15/how-much-influence-does-the-running-order-really-have/ to see how much it matters (TLDR five percent)
@ Cathal thumbs up! He will stand up!