Recent remarks by Sietse Bakker show that Australia’s upcoming ‘one-off’ appearance at the Eurovision Song Contest is, to a significant extent, the culmination of SBS Australia’s persistent lobbying over several years. There are all sorts of reasons to embrace or oppose Australia’s participation in Vienna. In this article, John Egan considers what other countries (more specifically which host broadcasters) might be next?

Guy Sebastian will not be the first Australian participant in the Eurovision Song Contest. In fact, if ‘Tonight Again‘ tops the leader board on 23 May his will not be the first Aussie victory either: none other than Johnny Logan, who was born in Australia but grew up in Ireland, holds that honour. Australians have represented the UK thrice: half of the New Seekers (2nd place; 1972) are Australian, as are Olivia Newton-John (4th place; 1974) and Gina G (8th place; 1996). Add in Jane Comerford, the lead singer  and composer for Texas Lightning’s ‘No No Never’ (14th; 2006) from New South Wales. Australia, therefore, has left rather significant footprints on the Eurovision stage over the years and generally their acts have placed well.

Guy wants to do “tonight again” with Europe in 2016 too

Some fans are excited about Australia’s appearance in Vienna; others are unhappy about it. We won’t rehash the merit of Australia’s participation in the 60th Contest: Australia will be competing at the 60th contest regardless.  Instead, we will consider a few other potential ‘guests’ to which the folks at the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) might offer a golden ticket in the years to come.

The Pedigreed

A Canadian artist has also won the Eurovision Song Contest; in fact, Canadian singers have performed consistently well whenever they have competed at the Grand Prix. Québécoise Céline Dion’s 1988 participation in Dublin was strategic: it was designed to give her exposure outside of francophone Canada, and in particular to launch a global music career. It seems to have worked: by the time she arrived in Lausanne to reprise ‘Ne partez pas sans moi’ a year later, Dion had signed with Sony Music and had recorded much of her first English album ‘Unison’.

Except for ABBA, Céline Dion remains the most successful Eurovision Song Contest winner by almost any measure of music success.

And if it worked before, why not try again, eh? Five years after Dion’s victory, Switzerland was represented by une autre chanteuse canadienne at the 1993 contest.  Québécoise Annie Cotton finished a respectable third place  with ‘Moi, tout simplement’ in Millstreet. Fast forward to 2001 and this time France recruited Natasha St.-Pier (from New Brunswick rather than Québec) who achieved a very respectable fourth place with ‘Je n’aime que mon âme‘.

And yet, even with home grown talent  competing, interest in the Contest did not increase: the 2001 contests was the last to be shown on Canadian television. Which reflects the weakness of proposing Canada as a guest participant: without recent Canadian television viewership data for the contest, it is difficult to quantify how many in Canada watch the contest each year. As a bilingual country Canada has two public broadcasting television networks run by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation/la Société Radio-Canada: CBC Television and Radio-Canada télé. Both are Associate EBU members. Either—or both—could broadcast the contest.

However, with a population of 35 million Canada has more than twice the (potential) viewing audience of Australia. And Canada is just behind Australia in the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI, which represents the music industry) rankings: 7th place with US$342 million in sales versus 6th place and US$376 million in total sales for Sebastian’s home.

The Wild Cards

With over 125 million residents, Japan is the tenth most populous country in the world. Japan also has the world’s second largest recording industry and is one of only four “billion dollar” recording industries (along with the US, Germany and UK). In 2014 total Japanese music sales were US$2.6 billion. Anchored by public broadcaster NHK (an Associate EBU member), over 99 per cent of the country has access to free-to-air television. Japan represents both very large potential TV audience and a market to sell contest participants’ music.

And then there is South Korea. Aside from a population of 51 million (with 99 per cent television coverage), South Korea K-pop music industry sells massively across Asia, particularly in Japan and the Philippines. In terms of its domestic market, the IFPI ranks South Korea in 8th place, with US$266 million in sales. If Psi’s ubiquitous ‘Gangnam Style‘ can hit number one in over 25 countries—including most of Europe—with sales of more than 10 million units, could K-pop produce a Eurovision friendly entry?

Korean hip-pop diva Hyuna

South Korea’s public broadcaster, KBS, is an Associate EBU member. With its cultural footprint ever-expanding, linking up K-pop and europop might well be a winning combination, and perhaps the most intriguing country to invite after Australia.

The Behemoths

Only one of the ten of the world’s most populous countries—Russia, in ninth place with 146 million residents—currently participates in the Eurovision Song Contest. If we look at the five largest, whose combined population is over three billion, it represents about half the world’s population… almost ten times the population of the European Union.

Of course China, with its 1.37 billion population, is the world’s largest, where more than a billion have reliable access to TV. Unlike most other broadcasting markets, government broadcaster CCTV dominates the airwaves, with CCTV1 its flagship network. CCTV isn’t a free broadcaster, which might present challenges with showing the contest. However, CCTV is an Associate member of the European Broadcasting Union (EBU). There are reports that Hunan TV, a subsidiary of CCTV, will be showing this year’s Contest.

Television arrived relatively late to world number two India, which didn’t have a public broadcaster until 1982. Today the main Doordarshan National network reaches about 90 per cent of India’s 1.27 billion residents. However private, satellite broadcasting that drives India’s TV market. Currently there are no Indian TV broadcasters that are members (full or associate) of the EBU.

The United States is well behind, in terms of raw numbers, in third place. Its 320 million residents enjoy 97 per cent television coverage. We have had one American artist win of course: Katrina of Katrina and the Waves, whose anthemic ‘Love Shine A Light’ roared to victory in 1997. Perhaps more importantly, the  US is the world’s largest music industry, according to the IFPI. Last year total sales were US$4.9 billion. All three main private broadcast television networks—ABC, CBS and NBC—are associate EBU members.

Indonesia’s 255 million are fourth, although 97 per cent of residents watch television “monthly”: being a large archipelago, many parts of the country only have access to satellite television. TVRI is the main public broadcaster, although like India, private broadcasters, dominates the market. Anggun, who represented France with “Echo (You and I)” in 2012, is originally from Indonesia. There are no Indonesian EBU members.

The sole Latin American country in the top five is Brazil; there are over 205 million persons in Brazil. In fact Rede Globo is the world’s second largest commercial TV network (after ABC in the US). There has never been a public broadcaster in Brazil: during the years of military dictatorship a “privileged partnership” between the regime and Globo ensured only government approved news and information were broadcast on Brazilian TV. Brazil is one of only two of the behemoths (after the US) in the IFPI top 10, in 10th place with total music sales of US$247 million in 2014. Despite its colonial ties to Portugal, there are no Brazilian EBU members.

Any one of these countries’ participation could massively expand the audience for the Eurovision Song Contest. There is some rather compelling numbers for any of them, but domestic broadcast arrangements put up some interesting barriers that would need to be cleared.

Conclusions

Canada and the US are, like Australia, migrant societies with significant diaspora European communities. In terms of cultural affinity, either would be a good match for the contest. China, India, the US, Indonesia and Brazil are massive television markets: picking up 1% of the Chinese or Indian viewers would theoretically match the most recent estimates of total viewing audience for the Eurovision Song Contest (between 100 -150 million viewers).

If considering the nexus of television and music markets, the US, Japan and South Korea, are plausible. Japan, though larger than South Korea, isn’t as outward facing with respect to popular culture–music or television. South Korea’s cultural sphere both celebrates Korean culture and embraces global culture, which shows in terms of production standards and portability.

In terms of efficiently expanding the appeal of the world’s favourite song contest, however, one country offers a nexus of all three (large TV viewership, major music market, migrant society): the US. Many in the US already watch the contest each year, either via the webcast or on one of several European host broadcasters that carry the show live via satellite. Getting the show onto one of the big three commercial TV networks—all of whom are already Associate EBU members—could provide the show with a massive leap forward, in terms of international profile. As well, in terms of global musical footprint, no one matches the US recording industry. American music is found on the world’s radios and is sold in the world’s music stores (online and brick-and-mortar). But getting one of these networks to agree to dedicated up to four hours of mid-afternoon (live) or primetime television coverage (delayed) across a network of dozens of privately owned affiliate stations presents its own, rather daunting challenges.

If Guy Sebastian does well for Australia this year—in particular, if his participation leads to record sales in Europe—anything is possible.