British Academy (BAFTA) nominated broadcaster and writer Ewan Spence is the voice behind The Unofficial Eurovision Song Contest Podcast and one of the driving forces behind ESC Insight. Having had an online presence since 1994, he is a noted commentator around the intersection of the media, internet, technology, mobility and how it affects us all. Based in Edinburgh, Scotland, his work has appeared on the BBC, The Stage, STV, and The Times.
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I think one really has to see the running order in perspective. In my opinion the first 13/15 songs are rather bombastic, straight in your face (Ukraine, Iceland, Armenia, Greece, Austria).
The 2nd half is much more “lighter”, even with up-tempo songs in it (Denmark, Italy, Hungary, Finland, Malta, Switzerland). That “lighter” feeling is enhanced with songs like Spain, Russia, UK and Netherlands.
So in the first place…..the winner will not walk away with the points I think. Or….at least concerning the TOP 3. And IF there’s going to be a winner with more than 250 points, then I think it’ll be Austria.
Also, it can’t be every time a winner from the 2nd half. Results from history don’t kind, only historical trends count. That’s something different. And that’s never a black-and-white phenomenon.
Having said so, I think Spain, Hungary, Denmark and Netherlands have a good draw. UK? Perhaps too, allthough last couple of years we haven’t seen that much luck from last starting grid (still, historical trend): France 2005 (100% televote), Spain 2009 & Finland 2009 (first time 50%jury/50%televote), Ukraine 2012 & Moldova 2012, Georgia 2013 & Ireland 2013.
Indeed, the 2nd half, statistically holds up as the better part of the show if you want to win.
Still, this year’s running order must be the most difficult one for betters since…..since years. I think Austria is going to win this. There was loads of fuzz about Finland when it won back in 2006. Same with Dana back in 1998. This will only help Austria I think. IF there’s a ballad-win this year, then it’ll be Austria.
Conchita’s beard falls completely flat compared to her overall performance tonight. Which was as stunning and “straight into your face” as Serbia back in 2007. Add 50% of (“X-Factor-panel-esque) juries….and I think we will be heading to Vienna.
Or…perhaps Madrid/Barcelona, Boedapest, Copenhagen (again??), Amsterdam/Rotterdam or London/Manchester?
I think you forget how numerous are the countries in this year’s contest not to be open minded enough to just let Austria win.
Trust me, if all the former soviet countries already were participating in 1998, I am not sure Dana’s victory would have been that obvious – although it already wasn’t much (with only 6 points).
If the juries actually base their vote on the quality of the songs she still may have some chances, but I am afraid that it’s still something questionable as of today.
I’m not surprised that the uk gets the very last slot, but I’m very suprised and happy that Malta is running late in the order.
And this is now giving us a better show than a random draw would have? Somehow I doubt it …
I think one really has to see the running order in perspective. In my opinion the first 13/15 songs are rather bombastic, straight in your face (Ukraine, Iceland, Armenia, Greece, Austria).
The 2nd half is much more “lighter”, even with up-tempo songs in it (Denmark, Italy, Hungary, Finland, Malta, Switzerland). That “lighter” feeling is enhanced with songs like Spain, Russia, UK and Netherlands.
So in the first place…..the winner will not walk away with the points I think. Or….at least concerning the TOP 3. And IF there’s going to be a winner with more than 250 points, then I think it’ll be Austria.
Also, it can’t be every time a winner from the 2nd half. Results from history don’t kind, only historical trends count. That’s something different. And that’s never a black-and-white phenomenon.
Having said so, I think Spain, Hungary, Denmark and Netherlands have a good draw. UK? Perhaps too, allthough last couple of years we haven’t seen that much luck from last starting grid (still, historical trend): France 2005 (100% televote), Spain 2009 & Finland 2009 (first time 50%jury/50%televote), Ukraine 2012 & Moldova 2012, Georgia 2013 & Ireland 2013.
Regarding the winners, a short overview:
–> 2003, grid #04: Turkey (100% televote winner)
–> 2004, grid #10: Ukraine (100% televote winner)
–> 2005, grid #19: Greece (100% televote winner, “only” 230 p)
–> 2006, grid #17: Finland (100% televote winner)
–> 2007, grid #17: Serbia (100% televote winner)
–> 2008, grid #24: Russia (100% televote winner)
–> 2009, grid #20: Norway (50%/50% winner)
–> 2010, grid #22: Germany (50%/50% winner)
–> 2011, grid #19: Azerbaijan (50%/50% winner, “only” 221 p)
–> 2012, grid #17: Sweden (50%/50% winner)
–> 2013, grid #18: Denmark (50%/50% winner)
Indeed, the 2nd half, statistically holds up as the better part of the show if you want to win.
Still, this year’s running order must be the most difficult one for betters since…..since years. I think Austria is going to win this. There was loads of fuzz about Finland when it won back in 2006. Same with Dana back in 1998. This will only help Austria I think. IF there’s a ballad-win this year, then it’ll be Austria.
Conchita’s beard falls completely flat compared to her overall performance tonight. Which was as stunning and “straight into your face” as Serbia back in 2007. Add 50% of (“X-Factor-panel-esque) juries….and I think we will be heading to Vienna.
Or…perhaps Madrid/Barcelona, Boedapest, Copenhagen (again??), Amsterdam/Rotterdam or London/Manchester?
I think you forget how numerous are the countries in this year’s contest not to be open minded enough to just let Austria win.
Trust me, if all the former soviet countries already were participating in 1998, I am not sure Dana’s victory would have been that obvious – although it already wasn’t much (with only 6 points).
If the juries actually base their vote on the quality of the songs she still may have some chances, but I am afraid that it’s still something questionable as of today.
First half/second half” – should they just introduce “warm-up/headliner” draw for next year`s final? ☺