, courtesy of the production team and with the blessing of the Reference Group. This is ostensibly to create a more balanced sequence and avoid random clustering of songs that cumulatively might cause frustrated (or bored) viewers to tune out.
Is this a balanced draw? Is this fair? We shall perhaps get a clearer sense of this after Saturday’s Grand Final—when some delegations who were tipped to win before the draw was mad might call foul.
Some countries rather obviously have done well—if not to win outright, then certainly to position them nearer the top of the leader board.
Since 2004 the winning song of the grand finals and the semi-finals have only sung in the top half on one occasion (Ukraine’s Ruslana with ‘Wild Dances’ in 2004), anything drawn from 14th onward is ostensibly favoured. Except that allocation between the top half and the bottom half was a random draw. Only the placements within each half of the draw were done by the producers. This is, after all, a Contest.
Winners
Most of the winners in this era have performed 16th or later (in a 24 person final), or amongst the last eight acts (in any final, regardless of number of entries). So this year entries 16-26 or 19-26 have a better statistical shot. Sweden’s allocation of 16 was the only slot that was done as a draw. because of the Swedish production team, to avoid any perception of self-favouritism. Let’s look at the ten songs drawn 17-26:
17 Hungary
18 Denmark
19 Iceland
20 Azerbaijan
21 Greece
22 Ukraine
23 Italy
24 Norway
25 Georgia26 Ireland
The coveted 17th slot, which has produced three winners since 2004, goes to idiosyncratic Hungary. Kedvesem is sandwiched, however, between the hometown entry (16th) and the pre-Contest favourite from Denmark (18th). With Malmö actually closer to Copenhagen than Stockholm, there will be a loud Danish contingent in the arena on Saturday night. Between the roars for Sweden and Denmark, Hungary needs to claim some energy and avoid being forgotten.
Among the other pre-Contest favourites Azerbaijan has a nice slot (20th), with entries on either side that contrast nicely. Norway has been given 24th, or third to last. Not being the last of 26 songs can work in one’s favour: some people may get restless before the “extra” two songs come and disengage (happens every year at my Eurovision party). Second, punters who know there are other entries coming may make an effort to remain focused. Two or three from the end is sometimes called the ‘late but not too late’ slot.
Georgia in 25th (second to last) should therefore be very pleased with their draw. Being the last ballad might sway we old school fans who love the big ballads—and are torn between entries like Georgia’s Iceland’s and Moldova’s.
Unhappy campers
In terms of the second half of the draw, the early one is drawn the lower the statistical likelihood of winning. Romania (14th the United Kingdom (15th) are probably not thrilled. Fair enough. What about the first half of the draw?
We know the producers wanted a strong opener, so that’s speaks volumes to France’s Amandine and ‘L’Enfer et moi’. But we’ve only had one song win as an opener of any semi-final or final since 1989. Since 2004 only one winner has come from the first half (1 through 13 this year) of the draw. Ukraine won from 10th place in 2004) – that’s it. In fact, we’ve only seen two Grand Final openers in the top 10 since 2004, Ramón’s ‘Paral Llenarme de Ti’ for Spain and Safura’s ‘Drip Drop’ for Azerbaijan in 2010.
Two of the pre-Contest favourites drew the first half—and they will perform back-to back with one another, in 10th and 11th. Dinara Galipova’s peace anthem ‘What If’ for Russia is followed by Germany’s Cascada with ‘Glorious’. The contrast is striking: the jury (and televote) is still out whether juxtaposing like with like is better than putting different songs next to one another. The producers have clearly gone for the latter.
The last song in the first half is Anouk’s haunting “Birds”. Having got the Netherlands out of the semi-finals for the first time in nearly a decade is something of a victory. Whether Anouk can land herself on the top half of the leader board on Saturday night might well come down to the advertising breaks. Being the first song after an ad break is not good.
The Ultimate Entry
Last is certainly not least this year… the producers have made it clear that the ultimate (last) song would be a strong one, an exclamation point on the night’s proceedings. Whether that means winner is a different question. But clearly the producers love Ryan Dolan’s ‘Only Love Survives’ for Ireland. It’s a logical choice: big up-tempo production, well sung, great camera shots, very much a party song.
Since 2004, here’s how polished, up-tempo numbers have done on the scoreboard:
2004: It Hurts, by Lena P (Sweden). Finished 5th.
2005: Chacun pense à soi, by Ortal (France). Finished 23rd.
2006: Without Your Love, by André (Armenia). Finished 8th,
2007: Fight, by Natalia Barbu (Moldova). Finished 10th
2008: Hold On, Be Strong, by Maria Haukaas Storeng (Norway). Finished 5th.
2009: La Noche Es Para Mi, by Soraya (Spain). Finished 24th.
2010: In A Moment Like This, by Chanée & N’Evergreen (Denmark). Finished 4th.
2011: One More Day, by Eldrine (Georgia). Finished 8th.
2012: Lautar, by Pasha Parfeny (Moldova). Finished 11th.
Out of nine years, six top ten finishes—including three top 5 finishes. But no winners.
It’s worth nothing that the entries that did poorly in 2005 and 2009 were not considered strong entries that year—nor did they have to earn their slots through semi-final qualification. If we look at the entries that qualified from the semi-finals and performed last, all of them except last year’s Moldovan entry finished in the top 10. Many fans saw 2012 as one of the most competitive Grand Finals in many years. 11th is not a placing to be ashamed of.
This all bodes well for the Irish. Go neirí an bothar leat!
Some interesting aspects of this year’s qualifiers
In editing to the draw and its implications, there are some interesting trends in terms of who qualified out of each semi-final this year. For example, in terms of gender we have almost a perfect split with respect to lead vocal duties. Twelve acts have a male lead vocalist; thirteen have a female lead vocalist. Our 26th entry, from Georgia, is a duet.
Songs performed in English were more successful in qualifying for the Grand Final. Taking into account our six pre-qualifiers. We will eight songs sung wholly or largely in languages other than English. Spanish, French, Italian, Estonian, Hungarian, Romanian (Moldova), Greek and Icelandic will all be sung on Saturday night, which is about average since 2004 (last year’s final, in comparison, had seven). So English continues to predominate.
The big shift, however, has been geographic. In regional terms, countries that participated in Eurovision prior to 1993–when former Yugoslav and ex-Eastern bloc countries began to participate—are over-represented. This year fifteen qualified, with only four (Switzerland, Cyprus, Austria, and Israel) not making the cut, and all the Nordic countries qualified.
The absence of the former Yugoslavian countries from this year’s Grand Final means we won’t have any participant from that region for the first time since 1980. Yugoslavia last sent a representative in 1992; Bosnia, Croatia and Slovenia made their débuts in 1993 and at least one ex-Yugoslavian country has appeared in the final every year since. It will be interesting to analyze where the votes from Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Slovenia and FYR Macedonia went in a few weeks time, since they are traditionally very generous with one another. If one entry were to capture their fancy, there’s potentially 60 points for a nice head start.
Nine ex-Soviet states also did: Latvia is the only ex-Soviet state this year not to qualify for the Grand Final. Romania and Hungary, which were formerly communist but not part of the Soviet Union, also qualified. Albania and Bulgaria, however, failed to pass.
I’d say France should be very upset getting the first slot. I love Amandine and I love the song and I really want it to do well, but it’s almost as bad an opener for the contest as Englebert was last year.
And even if the stats don’t always back it up, we know from Melodifestivalen that Christer loves the penultimate slot, so it’s no surprise to see his bias very clearly here.
It’s interesting that in the first half draw, the final three songs are Russia, Germany and the Netherlands. The first two of those are the only two in this half of the draw considered as pre-contest favourites. The EBU probably has a vested interest in the Netherlands not withdrawing, so want them to do as well as possible.
Do you think that, in determining the order of participation, they deliberately put these three songs at the end, so that none of the likely winners, nor those they wanted to appease, ended up in the position of death?
Isn’t the break between 13 and 14? Seems a bit weird to do it just before we’re halfway. Great draw for Ireland, however, I wouldn’t say it’s well sung. The backins were a bit off to my ears.Or maybe they just have annoying voices.
I still can’t believe the EBU were stupid enough to ever think this was a good idea. France by far and away the biggest losers here. Later in the show the moodiness of the track could have burst through, but in the first slot I think it will be too much for viewers to take in.
Ireland’s considered a strong song? Really? On a par with La Noche Es Para Mi I would say.
For me the focus of the draw is in trying to get a first time country winner and in this case Georgia. Their winning might also persuade some of the countries contemplating withdrawing to think again.
Meh. Looks to me like the running order choices were made to produce a more entertaining show, exactly as they said. I don’t see any particular attempt to affect the results. You can find patterns in anything, and it seems Eurovision fans are especially good at it.
But then, I’ve never been much of a fan of conspiracy theories.
OR HAVE I?
Is there any way of watching live on RTE’s website from the UK? I would prefer to watch with Marty Whelan’s sympathetic commentary rather than Graham Norton’s.
Romania will finish first this year, it is a sure bet, you shall see! For the first time in our history!
Nice article!