Following on from yesterday’s introduction to the Secret Society of the Eurovision Prediction Email, their leader, the Mysterious Stranger, has passed us his thoughts on the first semi-final.

Keep reading for more predictions destined to be horribly wrong tomorrow, and of course more clues to the mystery of Carnac’s his identity. We might even see about getting him onto our daily podcasts to discuss how badly he did this year…

1. Poland

And a full two weeks earlier than the semi-finals in 2010, we start the 56th Contest with Poland, the perennial unlucky qualifier. Twice they came 11th in semi-finals, and they have only qualified for a Eurovision final once, with Isis Gee in 2008. This year they are represented by Magdalena Tul with her song “Jestem”. I saw this song performed in Amsterdam, and on a night of otherwise indifferent performances, this stood out.

As for the song though, well, it’s a very sassy video and she is a pretty singer. The song is sung totally in Polish, and that is a mistake I think. This needs a bit of English. While the tune is ok, the ending is weak, and overall this is a song that is only borderline to qualify.

2. Norway

Oh look, it’s the daughter of Joelle Ursull! This song has had a lot of “fan vibe” since it won the Norwegian final at a canter. While the video comes from the final, it’s obvious that the studio version of the song has been dubbed over it, which immediately calls into question Stella’s vocal abilities.

That said, the song has a fun opening, and the options for a dramatic and memorable staging in Düsseldorf are numerous. Think “The Lion King” meets the aforementioned Joelle Ursull from 1990. However if they get the staging right, and Stella is able to sing live, then this ticks a lot of boxes, even in spite of the graveyard draw in this semi-final.

3. Albania

Wow, definitely the hair of the night. I love these tourism videos, like the ones sent regularly by Turkey and Cyprus in the 1970s and 80s. Having been to Albania in 2010, I can assure you that it is not that attractive in reality. However, what about the song? Well, it’s not exactly a sing-a-long is it. I’m sure some down in the Balkans will like it, but it’s not for me. Case of “Nice Video, shame about the song!”

4. Armenia

Staying with the “A”s, it’s onto Armenia, which unlike Poland, is virtually a guaranteed qualifier, despite what I might say about it now! Here is another case of obvious dubbing over a live performance. The video is certainly a good advert for the Armenian pyrotechnic industry, and I love the shoulder puffs on her dress. As for the song, it’s somewhat forgettable with a very strained break in the middle. I love the disinterested audience in the studio. Deserves not to qualify, but will anyway.

5. Turkey

Another country that just has to turn up to qualify. Every year Turkey either sends Belly Dancing ladies, or hard rocking gentlemen. This year is the “rocking” men. Indeed these guys look like the fathers of Manga from last year! That said, I do like the video, and the song is not the worst. A bit repetitive perhaps, but not the worst.

6. Serbia

And its back to “Ready Steady Go”, Belgrade style. Obviously Austin Powers was terribly popular in Serbia. If you like this kind of 60s kitsch, then this is one for you. The song is a bit formulaic though with a very predictable key change. Ending is a bit weak, which is a shame because Nina is actually one of the better performers this year. Should qualify I think.

7. Russia

Well, if Russia could qualify with that dogs-dinner of a song last year, there seems little doubt but that they will qualify every year. However, all that aside, this is one of the better songs this year. Far more accessible than last year’s dirge, and he is a very handsome singer. Add in a catchy chorus, and a well orchestrated break we could well be winging our way back to Russia in 2012. Watch this one!

8. Switzerland

Continuing a decent run of songs comes the Swiss. This has a real sing-a-long opening that just might get the crowd going in Düsseldorf. It’s all very simple with a very handsome cellist, if you like such things. Perhaps there is one to many “na-na-na-nas” in the chorus, but all in all, this is a sweet song that might appeal.

9. Georgia

Despite having watched the previews a few times now, I have absolutely no idea what the Georgian song is like, which can’t be a good sign! Oh yes, that awful green jacket. I remember it now! This is the first of too many songs this year that have decided to have a rap interlude. Has no one told them that rap simply does not work at Eurovision. It never has, and probably never will.

This song reminds me of the Polish song from 2007, which managed to combine five different styles of music into one three minute song. This song lurches from rock to rap, back to rock again. It even ends with loud-hailers on stage, but no apparent reason. Next!

10. Finland

Year after year, seasoned Eurovision watchers are on the look out for that most elusive of things, namely the surprise winner. The one song that nobody has noticed, that you can still back at 50-1 on the day of the final, and then romps home to victory! The Olsen Brothers did it in 2000, and not too many had Marie-N backed in 2003.

If there is any song in 2011 that has the potential to pull off such a surprise win, then it is this very simple ditty from the usually morose Finns. If this qualifies, and then gets a very late draw in the final, 35,000 people all going “Da-da-dum” at the same time will be very effective. As for the song, well it’s David Gray meets James Blunt. The lyrics could have been written by a 7 year old and I think the song needs a key change to give it more of a lift. But it’s cute and catchy and reminds me a lot of Tom Dice last year. I think it will do just as well.

11. Malta

No country wants to win Eurovision more than Malta. And I’m sorry to say that 2011 won’t be their year. The video looks like a Benetton Ad, or one of those ads for I-pods mixed with Abba’s “Take a chance on me”. That’s as positive I can be about this terrible song that re-defines bland and which has the worst break in Eurovision history.

12. San Marino

And it’s a welcome back to one of the first nations I ever visited. You can actually see the spot in the video where one of the very few photos of my whole family was taken (on the steps of San Marino Cathedral). This song is very pleasant as far as it goes, and I’m sure Senit is a great performer. But the song just passes you by and I think will get lost in Düsseldorf.

13. Croatia

I do miss those Croatian videos taken in the hotel ballroom, the ones that looked like wedding videos. I do like her bubble maker though. I wonder where I can get one? This song is classic Eurovision-by-numbers. Uptempo, bland lyrics, pretty singer. Nothing we have not seen 1000 times before. This song does fail to develop I think and as my mother would say, is only alright!

14. Iceland

If ever a song comes to Eurovision with a back story, then this is it. The whole tale of Iceland at Eurovision this year reads like a Disney movie, what with the singer dying suddenly just days before the Icelandic final, then his friends coming together to sing it anyway and then winning the Icelandic final.

The question is whether there will be the fairytale ending in Düsseldorf? The song is very similar to Denmark 2001, and while it came second, it had hometown support behind it. That said, I expect every commentator to give their audiences the full back-story to this song, and it could well get a large sympathy vote. Oh, and the video looks like it was filmed at an Icelandic Barn-Dance!

14. Hungary

I have long wished for Hungary to win Eurovision, as I believe that Budapest would be the best imaginable host city for the contest! Any maybe this year I will get my wish. This is one of the big “fan favourites” of this year, which is usually the kiss of death. Many are referring back to Kate Ryan who went to Athens in 2006 with the clear favourite to win the contest, and ended up languishing in the semi-finals.

o, the question is, can Kati Wolf sing live in front of an audience of 35,000? The answer to that question will determine how this song will do. If she can pull it off, then it could easily win the contest because it has a great chorus and an interesting song structure. It’s very reminiscent of Celine Dion’s “I drove all night” at the start, and there is a Whitney Houston-esque “Hey” in the break. I would worry as to how five backing singers will manage the choral backing vocals from the CD. But all in all, this must have a strong chance.

16. Portugal

This group reminds me a bit of Spain 2008 (Rodolfo Chikilicuatre). All very colourful and stylised. I’m sure this song means an awful lot to the Portuguese, but I can’t see whatever meaning it has travelling beyond its own shores. I remember “Tea Packs” who sang for Israel back in 2007. Their song was supposedly controversial, but once it got to Helsinki, no one really cared. I think the same might happen here.

17. Lithuania

This song hardly started with rapturous applause, and that was from a Lithuanian audience. Whatever about the song though, what a dress! Over 35 years of watching Eurovision I have seen some truly appalling frocks, but even I was taken aback by this creation. It’s like a large see-through lamp-shade and is a contender for the worst bridesmaid’s dress of all time. As for the song, I truly hate this with a passion. It’s like the worst show song from a musical that you were dragged to see by your mother. Three minutes rarely felt so long!

18. Azerbaijan

This is your classic Eurovision Duet. Expect our pair to start at opposite ends of the stage, then slowly start walking towards each other, before finally meeting for the chorus, while all the time belting out this song at top voice right into each other’s face. This is all very nice, sweet and inoffensive, like some large blancmange. The song lacks a decent hook and most unusually, has no key change, though the break is not too bad. All in all it’s pretty bland fare.

19. Greece

And finally we have the Greeks, who along with the Poles won the right to choose their own spot in the semi-final. Being last in the semi is probably the one thing that might save this song. For the life of me I can’t see who this song will appeal to, and yet again, what is it with the rap? Well, men wearing baseball caps anyway. This is a very strange mixture of two completely different songs, and while it might look dramatic on stage, I cannot see vast numbers of people picking up their phones to vote for this.

Final Thoughts (or who’s going to the final)

And that’s the first semi-final done and dusted. Not the greatest selection of songs of all time, and no real stand out entry bar Hungary. In fact it’s easier to pick out nine songs that definitely won’t qualify rather than pick out ten that will. But for what it’s worth, I see the ten qualifiers being:-

1. Hungary

2. Russia

3. Norway

4. Serbia

5. Switzerland

6. Finland

7. Iceland

8. Turkey

9. Azerbaijan

10. Poland

Onto the second semi-final tomorrow.