We now know which countries will be appearing in the first and second semi-finals of the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest, and on what shows the hosts and Big Five countries will be voting.

Where Are The Big Five?

While they are not singing in the semi-finals, hosts Sweden and the Big Five still get to vote in the semi-finals, and the first draw was to allocate three to each semi-final.

• Semi Final 1: Italy, Sweden, and United Kingdom.
• Semi Final 2: France, Germany, and Spain.

Semi Final 1 – Tuesday May 14th

The draw split each semi-final into two halves, each half also corresponding to one full day of rehearsals. By knowing which half they are in, a delegation can now book hotels and flights for Malmo. The exact running order will be decided at a later date by the production team and signed off by Jon Ola Sand and the ESC Reference Group.

• Top Half: Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, The Netherlands, Russia, Slovenia, and Ukraine.
• Bottom Half: Belarus, Belgium, Cyprus, Ireland, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, and Serbia.

Semi Final 2 – Thursday May 16th

Norway was automatically assigned to this semi final (as was Denmark to the first semi -final) to make sure that the two biggest countries sending fans to Sweden would be spread out. Due to a religious holiday, Israel requested to appear in this semi-final, which the EBU agreed to.

• Top Half: Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Macedonia, Malta, and San Marino.
• Bottom Half: Albania, Armenia, Georgia, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Norway, Romania, and Switzerland.

Initial Thoughts On The Draw

Semi Final 1 is very much one for the minnows. While there are some big hitters singing on Tuesday (notably Serbia and Russia), countries with a patchy qualification record such as Estonia, Cyprus, and Lithuania, will fancy their chances of qualifying. Macedonia, Malta, Latvia, and Switzerland, are looking at the competition and thinking they have a much harder route to qualify from the second semi-final.

In terms of countries with a close cultural affinity, the Caucasus trio are all in the second semi final which should make for an interesting block, as does Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus in the first semi-final. Slovenia, Serbia, Croatia, and Montenegro are also together in the first semi-final, which leads to two clear sections you’d expect to share votes.

And for all the complaining of political voting, Ireland will be very glad to have the United Kingdom voting in their semi-final. ALong with it being the smaller field (10 to qualify from 16, there are 17 in the second semi-final) the Irish delegation are probably thinking that it’s ‘game on’ for a third fourth year in a row of reaching Saturday night.

The last thing that jumps out is the distribution of the ‘strong’ qualifiers. The ten countries that have a 75% or greater qualification record have been split equally between the two semi finals. Greece and Serbia have the highest average scores under semi-final conditions, and they have been kept apart by this draw.

Our First Prediction

Obviously we’ve not heard the majority of the songs, but looking at historical data, voting trends, and diaspora, let’s make an early prediction on who we think will qualify from each semi-final:

Semi Final 1: Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Ireland, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Serbia, Ukraine, and either Estonia or Slovenia.

Semi Final 2: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Greece, Georgia, Hungary, Iceland, Norway, Romania, and either Finland or Macedonia.

Now what?

We’ve four months to go till we know the actual result,  SVT need to see the shot lists and staging instructions to make up the running order, we need to listen to the songs (which naturally make all the difference) but one thing is for sure… the discussions, debates, and diatribes can behind!