Well that was all rather fun!
The new tradition of “handing over the key to the Host City” has passed and as Jon Ola Sand reminded the watching dignitaries and fans, it’s only 117 days to the first semi final of the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest. And in the same ceremony, we also learned the countries that will sing in the first and second semi-finals.
Which means that fans all over the Eurovision world are looking at two lists of 18 and 19 countries and deciding which countries will go through to the Saturday night Grand Final on the strength of which countries have joined them in their semi-final. Yes, four songs in, and we’re so switched on to the intra-national rivalries, treaties, and friendships that people can make the call on the qualifiers.
But perhaps there’s another way – and we’re going to try that here on ESC Insight.
While everyone gets the impact that Greece and Cyprus in the same semi final (and the UK not voting in the Irish semi final), what happens when you look further down the list? And with this being the ninth year of the semi-finals, we’ve a lot of usable data.
The inspiration for this project has come from Baseball in America. In that game, statistics are everywhere, from appearances and how many times someone hit a ball, to the number of times they have helped a team-mate score (and everything in between). These sabermetrics revolutionised the game. Can we apply these principles to the Eurovision Song Contest?
We’re going to give it a go. Over the winter, we’ve been working on our sabermetrics, with historical data, relationships, and a dash of arithmetic. Taking out all the emotion, and look at the semi final draws objectively, we have our first Eurovision Sabermetric Analysis.
Semi Final 1: Tuesday 22nd May 2012
We’re predicting with a high confidence nine countries to qualify out of the Tuesday semi-final, namely
Albania, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Moldova, Romania, and Russia.
The tenth place is a bit trickier, as Israel and Ireland are running incredibly close. If we bias towards points it goes to Israel, and if we bias to successful qualification, we’d give the tenth slot to Ireland.
Of course Jedward might be worth a few more points for the Emerald Isle, and this is where people are going to comment that the song is the important thing and it all comes down to the live show. Which is true of any sport or competition, but you have to say that you’d expect the New York Yankees to win far more often than the Pittsburgh Pirates. And in the case of Eurovision, some countries are like the pinstripes, and others are… from Pittsburgh.
Our heart says Ireland, but our first pass through the maths says Israel. We’ll just have to refine the model over the next few months (and some more data for San Marino would be nice as well).
Semi Final 2: Thursday 24th May 2012
Apart from the fact that more people will want tickets for the second semi-final, the Thursday show has a huge bias to the Balkan countries, which will make the voting very interesting. While we’d never suggest that there might be some tactical voting going on, there’s going to be some interesting national rivalries on show.
Over on our sabermetrics, it’s a bit more clean-cut, with a clear agreement on the top ten.
Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Georgia, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Sweden, Turkey, and Ukraine.
Big surprise for the team here is how well Macedonia could do – the Balkan issue is popping up here again – but it’s very close with Portugal and Slovenia very close behind them. Again, the practical world suggests that not every Balkan country will make it, but time will tell. And if Armenia decide to drop out of this semi-final – which conveniently has the extra country – we’re back to ten qualifying from eighteen in both, and we get to run the program again.
There is a lot to discuss over the next weeks and months, and I’ve got a lot more analysis and data to talk about as well. But for now, let’s look at our semi finals with a bit more attention to detail than “it’s fab and the UK always vote for Sweden!”