The running order for the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest has been set by the European Broadcasting Union. As per last year, roughly half of the acts drew positions that meant they had to be in the first half or second half of the show, while the other half has a so-called Producer’s Choice which meant they could be drawn anywhere from song 1 to song 26.
Switzerland, our host country, randomly drew 19 back in March.
The Grand Final Running Order for Eurovision 2025
The Favourite Has Everything They Could Ask For, And More
This is a running order that amplifies the hype behind the songs that have been deemed most in contention to win the 2025 Eurovision Song Contest.
The biggest favourite is Sweden with the song ‘Bara Bada Bastu’. The winner of the Audience Poll at Semi Final One, and at the current time of writing trading under 2s on the Betfair Exchange, suggesting a win percentage of over 50% of the boys from Ostrobothnia.
Sweden was one of those nations to receive a running order slot that could have been anywhere from first to last, and they are singing in slot 23 of 26. This alone is fantastic news when it comes to the scoreboard for the Swedish entry. Both with juries and with televotes we see evidence that the later in the show you are on, the better your chances of scoring higher. For the televoters there is one obvious explainer, there are often more viewers later in the show than before, and the crescendo in the show often builds throughout the show.
Data from Eurovision Song Contests from 2014 to 2024 shows how both televote (red line) and jury (blue line) see differences in scoreboard success based on the running order (Image: Dane Jørgensen)
What’s also excellent for the Swedish act is the songs buried before and after. Denmark’s first qualification to the Grand Final since 2019 brings Sissal’s ‘Hallucination’ to song 22. This has been the EuroClub song of the year, and it was particularly audible on Thursday night’s Semi Final that the crowd really picked up a gear cheering this on when the house beat kicked in during the second chorus.
That’s exactly what you want to come before you if you are competing for victory. The song from Denmark is an uptempo crowd pleaser, building energy throughout it’s constructive and bringing the audience in the arena to life. The arena will be bouncing just as the favourites make their way to the stage. They couldn’t possibly ask for a better crescendo than that.
However I think it goes further than that for Sweden looking at who is drawn after them. France’s sentimental ballad ‘maman’ is drawn 24th. Now this is also deemed a contender for victory and as such one might consider that their steamy laser finale might just give everything France want and more to steal the crescendo just that one song further.
But we think there’s a problem. The French act this year is one of the most technical challenging set ups of the year, requiring numerous minutes during the rehearsals to set up the huge container of cork fragments that fall from the roof, as well as the carpet that must cover the stage area to reduce clean up times. This was solved in the Semi Final by arranging interviews with some of this year’s commentators by their commentary positions. In the Semi Final there were four minutes and 45 seconds between Georgia’s ‘Freedom’ ending and ‘maman’ starting.
If the favourite to win Eurovision brings the house down, while the audience at home have almost five minutes to contemplate if that was the evening’s winner, that is the maximum amount of signalling that a broadcaster can control. Remember, you can vote throughout the show of the Grand Final.
The Return of Finnkampen
Erika Vikman’s ‘Ich Komme’ qualified to the Grand Final and, like her fellow Finns from KAJ, she won the Audience Poll for her Semi Final.
Erika, like her compatriots KAJ, has been given all they could wish for from a running order. Erika drew a first half slot, meaning the latest she could perform would have been song 13, which is where Finland sing. Erika by virtue of this is following an identical pathway to Käärijä, who had the honour of closing a Semi Final in Liverpool before drawing first half and performing ‘Cha Cha Cha’ in position 13 in the Liverpool Grand Final running order.
Erika Vikman is the rock star of the 2025 Eurovision Song Contest. The performance of ‘Ich Komme’ is powerful, confident and stage owning in a way I don’t think the Song Contest has ever experienced before. The act is one that commands attention and there is no doubt in my mind the audience will be ready for it. The choice of Netherlands ‘C’est La Vie’ being drawn immediately before the Finnish song is a wondrous help to guarantee that. Similar to ‘Hallucination’, this was the song and performance that I most noticed the crowd interaction for, clapping along with glee as the beat kicked in and Claude’s rich vocal shone. The applause will continue in anticipation of Erika’s chance to ride her microphone above the crowd once more.
For fans of Finland at the Eurovision Song Contest, with arguably two acts to cheer on, you have plenty to be excited about on Saturday night. Both acts have been given every opportunity they can to be showstoppers.
Austria’s Side-By-Side Comparison
Austrian song ‘Wasted Love’ came up just short against Erika Vikman in the Audience Poll, missing out on first place by three votes. It therefore can not be ignored in this conversation about running order winners and losers and most certainly there is plenty to be positive about for the Austrian delegation despite the first half draw.
What I notice is that this offers one of the rare moments of side-by-side comparison that the show has to offer. Contest Producer Christer Björkman does try to divide up the types of songs in the show throughout the show to create a sawtooth energy profile as we follow the narrative of the Song Contest. Austria in position nine is preceded by the United Kingdom’s Remember Monday performing in song eight. This for my ears is the closest that two songs get in genre this year, with the United Kingdom’s West End musical theatre sound not worlds away from the tender, theatrical storytelling that JJ begins ‘Wasted Love’ with.
When songs, or indeed any art are similar, they are easier to compare and judge which one feels is better of the two. Judging which is better out of Lithuania and Spain this year, or Italy vs Poland, is a pure matter of taste, but here we have two big vocal exercises with tempo changes and rousing finales.
And for my money JJ takes it here. The extraordinary vocal timbre that JJ has is almost impossible to compete alongside, and the detailed and evocative cinematography only further backs up how professional and talented the Austrian act is this year.
On the flip side, I don’t think that’s a good position for the United Kingdom to be squeezed in front of Austria.
Signalling To Avoid Victory
Within the first seven songs at this year’s Eurovision Song Contest Grand Final, we have three songs that I would argue are not on the winners wish list.
The first of these to mention is Estonia represented by Tommy Cash. ‘Espresso Macchiato’ has had much joy via streaming and social media following its performance in the First Semi Final, but despite the freedom of Producer’s Choice it is position three for Estonia in the running order.
Tommy Cash has built up a reputation during this Eurovision season as a figure who attracts attention in often controversial ways, with no more obvious example than his collaboration with Joost Klein on the track ’United By Music’.
Given how disparaging that song was about the European Broadcasting Union, it is clear that a Tommy Cash win would be a risky ambassador to be crowned as winner of the Eurovision Song Contest.
The same could be said if we talk about Yuval Rachael from Israel, who will sing immediately afterwards in position 4. Israel’s participation at the Eurovision Sing Contest has been once again a controversial topic, to the extent that during rehearsals in Basel six members of the public were ejected from the arena because of the protest they chose to make.
Estonia in 3rd and Israel in 4th is as early as possible without having the status of opening nor the stigma of placing 2nd, regarded through Eurovision cultural history as the worst starting position one can have. 3rd and 4th removes the possibility for their weak running order position to be a tabloid controversy, but are statistically terrible positions competitively. Luxembourg in 2nd, with a worthy number that isn’t expected to threaten for the win, is not a controversial choice here.
What is perhaps notable is that the run that goes Luxembourg-Estonia-Israel-Lithuania-Spain is identical to the run of these countries last year, except that Estonia replaces the Netherlands who were scheduled to compete with Joost Klein. These sequences can of course be accidental choices and I don’t want to overthink just this sequence, but given the gravity of particularly Israel’s participation, a conversation that numerous public service broadcasters are keeping on the EBU agenda, this correlation is notable for showing where the Song Contest is today and the challenges it faces.
There is also in this early block the country of Ukraine, performing after the run of nations above. Winners of the 2022 thanks to a televoting landslide, last year’s Song Contest saw Ukraine being another contender in ’Teresa & Maria’ being asked to perform from slot number two, ultimately coming in third place in the Grand Final. Ukraine is a nation that would, for reasons of the ongoing conflict with Russia, would be a difficult nation to win the modern Song Contest. Minimising the chance of having to go through that again by handing Ukraine an early draw seems sensible.
The running order can be used as a tool for offering advantages and disadvantages. That I can pick the three nations that would be most problematic for the EBU to host and conclude that their draws are not advantageous is …curious.
Challenging Pre-Conceptions of Host Entries
Coming towards the latter part of the running order we find the pre-determined 19th position for the host country Switzerland.
In past years we have found following a win the desire to play down any opportunities for a possible double-win/hosting; whether it by matter of broadcaster will or just simply the appeal to find an act that can match those heights of success. This year however it appears Switzerland may have struck gold in ‘Voyage’. The simple French chanson sees Zoe Me taking centre stage alone: no props – just one 70’s vintage lens camera, a continuous shot and some well framed lighting choices. It is beautiful to watch, and when it emerged on screen it changed very quickly in fans minds and social media reactions from “not a chance” to “dark horse for the win”.
Producers further increased Zoes’ chances at a good result in the final by choosing to program it with Armenia directly before and Malta following, two of the loudest and trashiest performances of 2025. This will only amplify the intimate nature, simplicity and the emotion it brings to the table, and could possibly break any previously held notions that a host countries entry is doomed to a lower scoreboard result.
The only competitor truly gunning for the same potential market and points here is Louanes’ ‘maman’ programmed five songs and an ad break later. It gives it some room to breath but still relevantly close enough to allow for both juries and the public to essentially “compare the pair”.
A Sing-a-long Finale, but then?
The sentimental French ballad performing in slot 24 is followed by one of the 2025 edition’s most iconic entries, ‘Tutta l’Italia’ representing San Marino. This is a sing-a-long bit of fun with a world famous DJ on the decks getting the crowd going, nothing to be taken too seriously, with plenty of crowd camera angles to show just how much fun the audience is having at the Eurovision Song Contest.
This feels like the natural closer, following on from previous song 26 choices such as ‘We Will Rave’ last year or ‘Hope’ from Estonia in 2022 that is great for crowd interaction but, by the time that we realise the Song Contest is taking its final breaths, is one that hasn’t picked up suitable traction to be fully competitive track in the mix to win.
But San Marino is song 25. There is one more song coming and one that is writing an interesting epilogue for the Song Contest.
Welcome to the spotlight Albania.
‘Zjerm’ by Shkordra Elektronike, is a fascinating piece of composition. One that takes a new spin on traditional sounds and adds an electronic touch to them, making music that takes a bridge from the past to the present. Lyrically the song is one of hope, wishing for a world without turmoil, and one culminating in the repeating of the word ‘shndrit’, meaning shine, a defiant call to resist the flood of darkness in the world and provide hope that we can create a brighter world.
It’s a powerful statement for the Song Contest to finish on – allow me to interpret this choice as intentional for reasons beyond just the scoreboard, but for reasons to finish the competitive action with positivity.
For those wondering about Albania’s competitive chances, do not be disheartened by song 26 being a bad position. We do not see that in when we are analysing the Song Contest statistically, more that the songs ending the Grand Final have not particularly been competitive when we reach the marathon of our 26 song finale. Zjerm is one of just two Balkan entries to qualify to this years final (the other being Greece) and both are given every opportunity to be showcased in the best light for great results and essentially encourage continued Balkan participation. But Albania’s song is one that is well liked amongst numerous supporters of the Song Contest, has had large public support this week from Albanian figures including their Prime Minister, and is strikingly sung and staged to leave a powerful lasting impression. We haven’t had a song 26 in a long time that is as able as the Albanian entry to be able to compete with both jury and televote, and I see no reason why being programmed last will limit that.
Nudged As Far As It Can
The Eurovision Song Contest is this year one of the most diverse we’ve ever seen. We have less than 10 English language songs in the Grand Final, and a rollercoaster of genres that take us on a Saturday night journey, one that I have full faith in that anybody will find something they love.
We talk about running order in articles like this, at times like this, like it is the most important part of the Song Contest. Those running order biases that we have seen by being drawn late or early, we have seen to be statistically significant, but they are just by a few percent. What I find notable is that the running order trends we see have once again amplified the chances of those most in the mix for a harmonious Eurovision victory, while minimising the chances of those that would create Eurovision disharmony by holding the trophy on Saturday night.
But of course, over the battle to score douze points from across Europe and the Rest of the World, the possibility to shift a few percentage points to shift 8 points to 12 points could be all the difference that is needed to win the Song Contest. As the betting odds stand just now, the top four songs to win the jury vote, and the top four to win the televote, are completely different from each other.
That suggests we aren’t just in for a rollercoaster from the show itself, but also on the scoreboard.
Ultimately, the running order does all it can to ensure a hero of the Contest, whoever it may be, will be the one lifting the trophy.
Let’s see where we go next May.