The Rule Change That Subtly Changed Melodifesivalen And Let KAJ Win Written by Ben Robertson on March 11, 2025 | 1 Comment

Let’s rewind to two weeks before Melodifestivalen’s grand final. The Malmö Arena was bustling for Heat 4, the penultimate round of Sweden’s multi-week musical festival, not the grand spectacle of the Eurovision stage. All eyes were on Måns Zelmerlöw, the former Eurovision winner making his long-awaited return to competitive Melodifestivalen after a decade. His entry, ‘Revolution’, lived up to the hype – spectacular staging, an impeccable vocal performance, and an easy qualification for the final.

At this point, Måns was the odds-on favourite. Sweden’s Melodifestivalen betting market had almost locked in its victory, paying out barely more than it would be to put your money in a savings account.

However, the real story would come from a surprising second-place finish in the heat: KAJ, the Finnish comedy trio. While Måns topped the heat, KAJ’s song, ‘Bara Bada Bastu’, quickly gained popularity – setting the stage for one of the most unpredictable Melodifestivalen results in history. This is the first time a song that finished second in its heat has won the Melodifestivalen final.

The Rule Change That Changed Everything

To understand KAJ’s victory, we need to look at a subtle but powerful rule change in Melodifestivalen this year, and at how this song gained that popularity. Historically, winning songs from early heats were not released to the public until the last heat had aired, a rule meant to prevent early qualifiers from gaining an unfair advantage. In the pre-streaming era, it made sense. But in today’s digital landscape, where instant streaming and playlist placements reign supreme, waiting weeks for a song’s release meant losing precious momentum.

The breakthrough? This year, Melodifestivalen songs were released on the Friday before each heat. Immediately, KAJ’s ‘Bara Bada Bastu’ climbed the Swedish Spotify charts, surpassing even Loreen’s ‘Tattoo’ on daily streams.

The song was a grassroots-driven sensation in getting this hype. Content creator Kristian Efremov, with over 50,000 subscribers across platforms like YouTube and TikTok, spotted this with ‘Bara Bada Bastu’ straight away, and his recent videos that include the now-Swedish Eurovision entry received views far and away above any of the other songs in this year’s competition. And it makes sense in retrospect that the song would spread on social media like wildfire, with a catchy hook and dance routine perfect for TikTok, and an underdog backstory to match it.

“KAJ’s song is great, ready-made content,” says Kristian. “However, it means so much more to people, it’s so different than other songs in Melodifestivalen, sung in Swedish and with a real message hidden behind the catchy tune.”

As KAJ’s song gained traction, the trio went from relative unknowns to Melodifestivalen’s darlings. Had the song’s release been withheld until the final heat, the momentum would have likely never got going, leaving Måns with an easy win, just like in the heat.

Instead, the song could be released straight away so everybody could share in the success, TikToks could be made using the song, and the bubble of love for the song just kept on growing. That success went further than expected. The Number One on Swedish Spotify was followed by a Number One in Finland – the first of any track from Finland’s Swedish-speaking community. I’d argue that the acceptance of the track by Finns, one that the Swedish-speaking minority may not always feel, also fed back into KAJ’s rise to success in Melodifestivalen. Finnish is a recognised minority language in Swedish law, and the Finnish community is far from insignificant, with over four percent of all Swedish residents having knowledge of the Finnish language.

Acceptance from the homeland meant that this was a huge part of their community in the build-up. On the day of the final, I was receiving messages from long-lost Finnish friends letting me know they were attending the final and wondering if I would be there. Friends who had never set foot in a Melodifestivalen before had a reason to do so now. The community was mobilised. Many communities were mobilised. Fans of all ages voted for KAJ to win Melodifestivalen, this time scoring a public vote more than Måns.

The Other Side of the Scoreboard

It wasn’t just public voting that KAJ had to worry about. Melodifestivalen’s final also includes an international jury of eight nations. You may think of juries that often favour more serious, polished acts. However, KAJ’s viral momentum couldn’t be ignored. The international juries had to reckon with the public’s overwhelming affection for KAJ, and anybody doing even just the vaguest bit of research into the songs before jury dury would see that – it’s practically impossible to view the songs online without seeing their view and like counts. Ultimately, KAJ’s momentum allowed them to close the gap, earning second place in the jury vote, just two points behind Måns.

Much has been made of the immediate reactions from Måns Zelmerlöw and John Lundvik at Melodifestivalen’s press conference. Måns said that he was “shocked that the jury groups gave KAJ such high points” and John Lundvik sees the result as “a sign that things are now changing”.

Note, too here Dolly Style’s completely untipped 4th place with juries, and there’s evidence for a complete change in jury opinion from the traditional status quo.

In an era where social media and streaming data increasingly influence decision-making, juries may find it harder to ignore a song with such immense public appeal, regardless of its more lighthearted nature. The jury’s decision to award KAJ and Dolly Style such high points suggests that the influence of streaming numbers and social media can no longer be dismissed when it comes to evaluating musical merit. It’s easy to dismiss a fun song without data, but who dares dismiss a fun song that is top of the charts?

The rise of social media’s influence on Melodifestivalen isn’t an isolated case. Over the years, we’ve seen how songs that perform well on streaming platforms and gain viral traction can sometimes defy traditional expectations. Whether it’s ‘Queen of Kings’ in Norway or ‘Espresso Macchiato’ in Estonia, both of which went big on social media before perhaps surprising by winning the jury vote in their National Finals, social media-driven success has an increasing impact on jury voting.

So, the question remains: Is this a one-off, or are we witnessing a fundamental shift in how music competitions operate? Do we now finally have enough evidence of a new era where streaming and social media influence will decide the outcome, rather than traditional methods we’ve used since the return of jury voting to call what type of song is a ‘jury’ song?

KAJ’s Victory Is A Reflection of a Changing Era

Ultimately, years of resistance to Melodifestivalen’s old-fashioned view of fairness has been shattered, and this year saw the floodgates open with the songs being released to the public each and every week. And this subtle tweak to the rules, (one I’ve been calling out to SVT for ages) hasn’t just happened and showcased many songs across the nation but arguably changed who Sweden’s representative to Eurovision is.

There’s never anything wrong in sending a song that tops the charts to Eurovision. Even less wrong to send a song that tops the charts in two countries. Even less wrong again to send a song that celebrates an underrepresented culture that many people are immensely proud of. Winning Eurovision? Perhaps, but some things are more important than that.

However, should sauna fever spread further in the months up to May, which juror would dare to vote down the number that is so warmly received and isn’t just fun on Saturday night but fun on the radio and the charts? There is now too much evidence, and too easy to find evidence, of which songs are successful or not that it is impossible for a professional juror to ignore.

Måns questioned if the international juries in May would vote similarly in support of ‘Bara Bada Bastu’ as they did in Solna. I’d agree that no song will be better evidence of the changed thinking about juries than this one. Let’s see what happens in Basel.