John’s Stockholm Sketches: Hedging Our Bets Written by John Lucas on May 7, 2016 | 3 Comments

Eurovision ain’t over until the final credits roll, and by the end of Day Six in the Press Centre, we’re still a full week away from that. However, by this point in the rehearsal process, there’s usually a fairly strong consensus on which way the wind is blowing. With the last few auto-qualifiers presenting their stage shows this morning, we should have enough information at our disposal to make a confident call – on paper, at least.

In practice, this year still feels remarkably open. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but the prevailing feeling last year was that it was Sweden’s to lose from the start, while Conchita established herself as a major contender from the moment she first took to the Copenhagen stage. Nobody has yet managed to dislodge Russia from the top of the betting odds at time of writing, but serious doubts remain about whether Sergey’s frantic, wild-eyed desperation can connect with enough of the viewers, let alone whether the juries will buy into a slice of pure Eurovision gouda.

So, if not Russia, then who? Sweden have the global chart hit of this year’s contest, a guaranteed heroes welcome from the home crowd (no pun intended) and a tried and tested stage concept that should contrast effectively with the more tech-heavy productions in this year’s lineup. The early draw is still a handicap though – low key entries tend to work better towards the end of a show; think The Common Linnets in 2014 and Norway’s soulful Hold on, Be Strong in 2008. Last year Måns cleaned up in his semi, but still fell back to third in the televote after drawing the first half. A massive jury lead pushed him into a comfortable win, but it’s hard to imagine Frans attracting a similar critical consensus with such a divisive song.

France still have more time than most to improve their performance, but an underwhelming first rehearsal has already serious dented their momentum.
Photo: Eurovision.tv

France come into this year’s contest riding an enormous amount of goodwill, but the first rehearsal has seriously dented their momentum. They have another batch of run-throughs to pull things together, and Amir has already promised major changes in his first press conference on Friday night, but it’s going to take a huge leap in energy and a very kind draw in the running order to put this back in contention.

A Russia/Ukraine fight to the finish line would be the kind of event television Jon Ola Sand and co. presumably dream about, and Jamala’s support base has grown and grown in the past week. The visuals for 1944 are beautiful, and the vocals are as consistently impressive on today’s run-through as they were on the first. The only hurdle this entry faces is how mournful and avant-garde it feels for a Saturday night entertainment show. A probable Jury top 5, but the high televote points are likely to go to something more accessible.

Australia remains something of a question mark for me. It’s a very strong song and Dami is one of the clear vocal standouts of the year. The Minority Report-influenced stage show is a little busy, and Dami is still struggling to nail the timings, but of all the betting favourites, this is the one that feels like it’s on the surest footing. It doesn’t really scream ‘winner’ to me, but if it finishes top three on both the jury and the televote, it’s entirely conceivable that it could take the title without topping either, particularly if the other frontrunners fail to secure a similar across-the-board consensus.

Dami Im is delivering a highly professional stage presentation that could hit the sweet spot between jury and televoter love.
Photo: Eurovision.tv

After a shaky first rehearsal, Malta are on track to pull together one of the most accomplished packages in this year’s Contest, with Ira’s impressive stage presence and a strong vocal mix keeping their odds reassuringly short. If things continue to move in the right direction, this has the potential to look like a real pop star performance. The only weak link here is that the staging and production are a lot more impressive than the melody, which doesn’t quite have the instantly stirring quality that a Eurovision winner usually requires. Juries should appreciate Ira’s professionalism, but once again it may leave the televoters slightly cold.

Beneath Malta in the betting odds, you start moving into real dark horse territory, three of whom have their second rehearsals today. Just’s performance still looks like a more refined version of what he did at Latvia’s national final, and the lack of surprise factor combined with an early draw in the semi may be contributing to his drifting odds. However, there’s a lot to be said for not fixing what isn’t broken, and if/when Heartbeat sails into the final, a late draw could put this right back into contention.

When I wrote up this year’s Eurovision Guide Book, I wrote Israel off as potentially the most boring three minutes in this year’s competition – proof as if it were needed that I know absolutely nothing, because Hovi Star and his team have turned out one of the most emotionally satisfying performances of this year. If Israel can overcome another horrible slot in the second semi final – and by all rights, they should –  Made of Stars could strike the kind of universally accessible emotional chord that resonates with viewers all over the world.

Poli Genova’s Tron-inspired costume certainly makes an impression, but Bulgaria face a tougher road than many of the favourites to take home the trophy.
Photo: Eurovision.tv

Then there’s my own personal dark horse Bulgaria, who I want so badly to see in the final mix that I have to acknowledge a possible lack of perspective. Poli is still selling If Love Was a Crime for everything it’s worth in today’s rehearsal, and the light-up dress and bizarre bow legged dance routine are still present and correct. I’m still confident that Bulgaria have a place in the final more or less nailed on, but the performance might just be a little too rough around the edges to read as a potential winner once there.

Predictably, last batch of big five rehearsals do little to shake things up. Germany are still struggling to find the sweet spot between the haunting nature of their song and singer Jamie-Lee’s garish K-pop inspired personal style, manifested today in an ensemble that makes her look like a distressed cocktail umbrella. This is a lovely song, but as a whole package it’s more likely to confuse than inspire.

Italy are essentially recreating their music video by projecting geometric shapes across the screen. Francesca delivers an emotional performance in front of a floral backdrop that makes her come across as Zoë from Austria’s slightly tortured teenage sister. I still feel that the way this song has been cut for time robs it of a lot of impact, and it could pass televoters by completely if it’s thrown out in the first ten or so songs.

Joe and Jake have selfies, pyro effects – and a serious uphill struggle to break into the top ten on the scoreboard.
Photo: Eurovision.tv

Speaking of passing televoters by, the United Kingdom should be grateful just to achieve a finishing position outside the bottom ten judging on recent form. Joe and Jake won a competent UK national final with a competent performance of a competent song. Now they have a competent stage show featuring fan selfies on the backdrop and the obligatory incongruously triumphal pyro effects. There’s absolutely nothing to be embarrassed about here, but unless there’s an especially large demographic of teenage girls with too much self esteem to fall for Frans’ unapologetic schtick, You’re Not Alone is shooting squarely for the middle of the pack.

So it is that the journalists stagger out of our second consecutive thirteen-hour day feeling no wiser than we did on Monday. A quick straw poll of the Insight team finds Jasmine Bear and Sam Ross reluctantly plumping for Russia as the most likely winner at this stage, while myself, Eleanor Chalkey, Ben Robertson and Ewan Spence are tentatively calling it for Sweden – a head-to-head that’s been signposted for months. It’d be nice to imagine that the final result won’t be quite that predictable, but unless somebody in the big five pulls off a major coup in their second rehearsal, we may have to wait until the final running order is announced on Thursday night before we can start planting our respective flags to the mast with any degree of confidence.