DR and the Eurovision.tv have of the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest. In summary, they are:
Semi Final 1: Armenia, Latvia, Estonia, Sweden, Iceland, Albania, Russia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Belgium, Moldova, San Marino, Portugal, The Netherlands, Montenegro, and Hungary.
Semi Final 2: Malta, Israel, Norway, Georgia, Poland, Austria, Lithuania, Finland, Ireland, Belarus, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Switzerland, Greece, Slovenia, and Romania.
Putting aside for an international competition, we can now try to predict the fate of many countries. As expected some countries have done well out of the draw, while others have fared badly. Given the history of the semi-finals, and and decide who to vote for, we’ve come up with our Winners and Losers from today’s news.
Winners
Latvia and Israel
While you want to avoid running second in the Grand Final if you have any ambitions of winning the Eurovision Song Contest, it’s actually one of the plum spots in the top half of the running order. Looking back over the voting in the jury/televote era of the semi-finals at Eurovision, the song in second place qualifies an eye-watering 75% of the time. That’s twice as often as the semi-final openers, and equal to the ‘last in the top half spot’ qualification percentage as well.
While Israel’s strong rock-based entry was already looking attractive for qualification, Latvia should be cracking open the champagne at the prospect of ‘Cake to Bake’ being second on stage. In a year where qualification is vital for Latvia’s future appearance at the Contest, they’ve just nabbed the best place possible.
Montenego
Second last in the running order, the final soaring ballad, and the darker lyrics of Hungary to follow…if Montenegro can’t qualify from here then they might as well find two hyperactive twins, load them up with Haribo, and forget about any musical integrity the country might have.
Switzerland
While I still have some question marks over Sebalter’s live performance (let’s blame the microphones from the Swiss National Final, shall we?), he’s got a cheeky attitude that comes across on camera very well. ‘Hunter of Stars‘ is a light and forgettable song that is powered more by his charm rather than musical hooks and catchy lyrics, but it ran the risk of being swamped by similar sounding numbers in this year’s line-up.
Hunter of Starting Positions
Not only has he got a solid position in the last few songs, he’s the last of the ‘Mumford-clones’ to take to the semi-final stage. That should be enough to sneak into the Top Ten and after the last few years the Swiss would probably consider that a victory.
Hungary
In the shorter semi-finals, the final position in the running order is far more attractive than running last on Saturday night. The line-up is short enough that there is little viewer fatigue, the song is uppermost in the minds of jurors and voters, and it gives a song the best chance possible to qualify for Saturday night. Given that we’re only losing six songs on Tuesday and five songs on Wednesday, you’d have to wear a pretty horrendous costume to not qualify from the final place.
To be honest, Romania’s Paula Seling and Ovi could probably win from anywhere in the back eight, so it’s Hungary who is the major winner here. ‘Running‘ is not as accessible as some of the other songs in this year’s line-up, so having an extra few moments to consider it at the end of order will be of benefit. Couple that with the bonus of running last and Hungary looks to be ready to continue an impressive personal qualification rate of 71.4%
Finland
Lithuania will get everyone’s ear into an indie/guitar feel before Finland take to the stage. That preparatory work will make ‘Something Better‘ sound even better and allow Softengine to stand out in a direct comparison with the preceding song. As we’ll see, being followed by Ireland is going to amplify the Finnish song as best song out of that group of three.
While they are in the middle of the running order, the songs around them should give the young Finnish group the confidence to go out and stake their claim for a Saturday night appearance.
Finland’s Softengine will love their musical neighbours
Losers
Estonia
Once more Estonia finds itself in the top half of the semi-final draw, and once more very early in the running order. Last year’s semi-final saw Birgit sing second and sneak a qualification, and this year Tanja is singing third. While that second spot has a great qualifying percentage (75%), third in the order has a very poor record of just 25%.
Estonia was also programmed 7th out of 26 in the Grand Final last year, and the Estonian Eurovision fans are already complaining that DR’s producers should take into account the poor positions they have had in previous years when building the draw this year. If ‘Amazing‘ makes the final, all eyes will be on the running order to see if they continue to be sacrificed, although as it stands DR appear to have made their choice of Baltic countries and seem to have gone for Latvia over Estonia.
The Netherlands
Performing later in any Contest that is judged sequentially is always an advantage, and countless studies have backed this up. That means The Common Linnets should be happy with their third from last draw, yes?
No, they shouldn’t. While the back half of the program has a much higher chance of qualifying, the third from last spot is traditionally one of the weakest qualifying spots at 37.5%. The Netherlands country-and-western infused number needs to stand out as much as possible.
A little bit of ‘Poison and Wine’ for The Common Linnets in the draw (picture: espective Broadcasters/EBU)
Unfortunately right after ‘Calm Before The Storm‘ is the aforementioned Montenegran ballad ‘Moj Svijet‘. Having something similar to compare yourself to is academically better than being sandwiched by a completely different genre, but in a straight comparison between The Netherlands and Montenegro, Sergej Ćetković wins every single time.
Austria
I’m sure DR mean well and will argue that ‘Rise Like A Phoenix‘ will stand out because the power ballad Bond theme has the club beats of Poland before it and Lithuania after it. Having that see-saw of styles and sounds works for a variety show and keeping the viewers attention, but it also does serious harm to the contrasting song when it comes to people deciding how to vote (). With nothing similar to compare Conchita Wurst to, the beauty of the song is lost, the energy and angst is missing in a mess of easy lyrics and ineffectual dance beats, and the tongue-in-cheek Polish presentation will likely amplify Wurst’s on-stage character and look.
It was tricky for Austria to qualify before. Now they have a mountain to climb.
Ireland
Oh dear.
Ireland has a rather contemporary indie rock band before it (Finland’s Softengine) and the contemporary, chart friendly Belarussian ‘Cheesecake‘ after it. That makes for a very smooth, almost dance floor like, transition between the three songs, but voters and jurors will find it easy to compare Ireland’s gentle electric guitar tones to Finland (advantage Scandanavia) and the modern cheeky tones of Teo (advantage to the satellite state). Nothing makes Ireland stand out. Not even then formulaic oirish dancers.
The only advantage they have is the presence of the UK and Germany in this semi-final. But that’s a weak advantage shared with Malta, Switzerland, and arguably Poland and Romania. So it’s not really an advantage at all.
Without a huge press and media campaign, Ireland are going to be swallowed up by the Eurovision machine and be spat out before Thursday is over.
Belgium
And then there’s Belgium. Yes Axel Hirsoux managed a landslide victory in the National Final, but the song stands out like a sore thumb in the Eurovision draw. There is nothing around him to compare the operatic voice to, and rather than have the ability to shine in a unique spotlight, ‘Mother‘ is going to feel awkward and out of place.
Axel Hirsoux (picture: Bart Musschoot (VRT))
Percentage wise singing tenth is better than ninth, where Ukraine is this year, but I would rather head into the second half of the draw as Ukraine with 20-30 ‘soft’ points and huge amounts of national sympathy from the EU, than being a Belgian who’s best hope is that the international commentators don’t make fun of his unconventional look.
What do you make of the semi-final draw? Have DR been fair to all the countries involved, have they went too far to promote a good TV show and damaged the competition? And do you feel that the production team should have so many levers for a country’s qualification under their control? Let us know in the comments.
abit harsh on the irish entry, belarus won’t swallow ireland up at all, I’m worked about finland but if anything its a disadvantage to belarus.
I thought the choice of Armenia and Malta as the semi openers were very odd choices (I personally would’ve had Estonia and Poland open). I think Ukraine got a good deal, they’re like a jolt of energy in between a glut of slow songs in the middle of Semi 1. I think Georgia got royally screwed as they’re put in-between two semi favourites (Norway and Poland) who will hog all the attention away from them.
“You’d have to wear a pretty horrendous costume to not qualify from the final place.”
I see what you did there :’)
Otherwise, I really hope you’re right about Finland – pretty much my favourite entry of 2014; I’m slightly worried for them. Although we are only losing five songs on the Thursday soooo…
Kylie, Georgia is such a strange track… it’s delightful and frustrating in equal measure!
James, sssh…. (but I’m glad someone spotted it).
Is 2nd really a good draw for the semis or is it just coincidence that it has a good record? Were the songs drawn there just going to qualify anyway? And most of the time they’ve only *just* made it. It makes no logical sense to me that 2nd is better than 1st in a semi but isn’t in a final. You’ve also no evidence that DR have deliberately favoured Latvia over Estonia – for all we know they’re going on the basis that later is always better.
Ewan you really show your age when you constantly refer to Softengine as contemporary! Maybe they could have been considered modern 10 years ago but not now. They’re nothing but dated soft rock bordering pop and belong in the bargin bin along with Busted and McFly.
i’d swap ireland and finland, when you really look at it finland are the losers, let me explain why.
1. finland is right after the commercial break which will mean some people may miss that song, which helps ireland
2. with ireland straight after finland people may remember ire land over finaldn (may), but with belarus right after ireland, ireland will be remembered for sure over them. helps ireland
3. kasey is a better vocalist than soft engine so she will have the juries on her side already going into the semi, but soft engines vocals may put of viewers and convince them to vote for her over them, helps ireland
4. ireland has more voting strength, *uk,germany,norway,finland,switzerland,austria* where as finland only have norway, they may get some votes of the rest though. helps ireland.
Put Softengine, Neolore, Nonono, and American Authors, on a single stage and ask which is the Eurovision act then… 🙂
Ben a final is “first or nowhere” and a semifinal us “just get top ten”, which us the major difference. The problem is second is seen as poor, so Latvia will lose media momentum.
Isn’t 2nd simply too early in the show for anyone to be in the mood for Latvia? If I’m geared up for a song contest I’d want to be a little more fatigued before the light relief.
It becomes a plus for Estonia: “Okay, now we’re getting started.”
BTW, is “Cake to Bake” part of this deluge of Mumfordalikes I’ve been reading so much about? Gotta catch ’em all.
Ewan, you were massively harsh on Ireland. You may not like it, but It’s a popular song and I have no doubt at all it will qualify for the final, regardless of what is around it.
I’m not looking forward to the Jukebox Jury on Ireland, if this is your attitude towards it.
Stephen, that’s one reason jbj is always three people to counter these issues. For me Ireland us formulaic and unchallenging…. And I prefer more from my music.
I understand your taste is different, hell sometimes I agree with your choices. My main concern was more about this article being tainted by your own bias in regards to Ireland’s draw and It’s chances.
We’ll see when the time comes but I don’t even have a doubt in my mind that Ireland is sailing through.
I think Ewan’s right to say it’s a bad draw for Ireland, being stuck in the middle there in-between two far more interesting songs.
I’m still baffled as to why DR have decided to open with Armenia. Can anyone explain that one to me? I always thought producers wanted something up-tempo and fun to start a show, and Armenia does not start like that at all. It builds up, but in the beginning it’s so slow … Wouldn’t there have been more logical openers around?
Why Do you refer to the allocation fixed positioning by DR as a draw?
There is nothing to do with helping good friends (Sweden, Norway, and Iceland) with a draw.
And still, noone think it’s strange to put Romania AGAIN in the last spot? Why not Macedonia (2nd semi) and Portugal (1st semi)? ah… they’re not Denmark’s “real” friends.
This system is very bad and is totaly not fair as a complete draw- then no one can argue against the production.
i bet my house that ewen spence will give ireland a miss in the juke box jury.
athal, whatever rating I give Ireland, I’ll give my reasoning in the show 🙂
kk fair enough 🙂
I completely agree with Carola, and that list you produced, Mr Spence, just proves her point. NoNoNo are epic brilliance, Softengine are not. Also, I’ve listened to your first jury jukebox, so fellow readers please don’t worry when he criticises Ireland. Judging from his observations he has a very poor judgement of quality, so we should all probably take it as a good sign that he doesn’t approve of Ireland.
bencook : belarus is more interesting than the irish entry?, get out.
if georgia qualify it won’t be because of the quality of the song, as long as georgia and belarus don’t qualify we will have a good draw.
ireland coming last in juke box jury with 2 misses and a maybe, and switzerland gets 2 hits and a maybe, sums up your judgment really.