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ESCInsight Predictions For 2014 Written by on April 25, 2014 | 19 Comments

Here at ESCInsight HQ, we like to put on a front for the website; that we are the balanced reporters, the friendly team that work together to seek and bring you the in-depth, the serious issues.  Behind the scenes though, we are actually a rather competitive (and sometimes petty) crew.  Sharleen is all about the betting odds, Ewan has all the stats, John draws up the graphs.  We all think we are ‘in the know’ so to speak.

Therefore in 2014, before we all feel the effects of ‘Eurovision Bubble’ and rehearsals overload, we are giving our readers a little more insight into our ESC Insight crew by gazing into our Ikea lamp stolen from Valentina Monetta last year crystal ball to see who WE think our potential winners and losers for 2014 will be.

In the nature of fairness (and competitiveness amongst ourselves) we will give you a summary of our results, as well as declare our individual hands for our predicted 10 qualifiers of each semi, and who we believe will be in the Top 10 on finals night.  Whoever amongst our team predicts the most correct will then have bragging rights for the next year as ESCInsight Prediction 2014 King or Queen.  And to whoever gets it most wrong, well, feel free to ridicule them in the comments below.

Semi 1 qualifier predictions:

Clearly the trickier of the semis to predict and featuring a large number of traditional qualifying countries, points were strewn across the board for the final spots to create both a tie for the 10th spot and the list featuring 2 nul-points results.

Ben Robertson – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine
Dr Eurovision – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Hungary, Iceland, Montenegro, Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine
Ewan Spence – Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Latvia, Moldova, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine
John Egan – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine
Samantha Ross – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Hungary, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine
Sharleen Wright – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Moldova, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine

We drew our line in the sand - its nul points for San Marino

We drew our line in the sand too Valentina, and its nul points for San Marino (and Portugal) from ESCInsight

ESC INSIGHT PREDICTS…
Armenia / Azerbaijan / Belgium / Estonia / Hungary /
Montenegro / Netherlands / Russia / Sweden / Ukraine

(note: Estonia selected on countback based on Top 10 predictions for final between Estonia, Iceland and Moldova)

Semi 2 qualifier predictions:

Our second semi results, unlike semi 1 provided us with a very clear cut Top 10 qualifying list. Predictions were similar across the team, with just one song a clear bottom ranking, scoring just one point.

Ben Robertson – Austria, Finland, Georgia, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, Malta, Norway, Poland, Romania
Dr Eurovision – Austria, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Macedonia, Malta, Norway, Poland, Romania
Ewan Spence – Austria, Belarus, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Lithuania, Malta, Norway, Romania
John Egan – Austria, Belarus, Finland, Georgia, Greece, Malata, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovenia
Samantha Ross – Austria, Finland,Grece, Israel, Macedonia, Malta, Norway, Poland, Romania, Switzerland
Sharleen Wright – Austria, Finland, Greece, Israel, Lithuania, Malta, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovenia

Switzerland will be hunting for a cheap flight on Friday according to Insight

Switzerlands’ Sebalter will the hunter for a cheap flight on Friday according to Insight

ESC INSIGHT PREDICTS…
Austria / Finland / Greece / Ireland / Israel /
Lithuania / Malta / Norway / Poland /Romania

 

Final Top 10 predictions:

Some interesting figures came to light amongst the ESC Insight team in the final round, with points thrown all over the shop and only one song managing to feature on everyones’ list.  We should also note the lack of Russia in anyones’ top 10 for 2014 – let’s see if the whole team will hang their heads in shame come Sunday morning for its lack of foresight.

Ben Robertson – Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Malta, Romania, Spain
Dr Eurovision – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Denmark, Greece, Malta, Montenegro, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom
Ewan Spence – Austria, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Greece, Norway, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, United Kingdom
John Egan – Armenia, Austria, Estonia, Greece, Iceland, Malta, Norway, Romania, Sweden, United Kingdom
Samantha Ross – Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Malta, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom
Sharleen Wright – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Malta, Romania, Spain, United Kingdom

Greece, the only country to rise up to a clean sweep in Top 10 predictions

Greece, the only country to have Freaky Fortune and rise up to a clean sweep in ESCInsights’ 2014 Top 10 predictions

Not everyone could agree on a final 10 for the team however, and due to a tie, we had to settle for a top 12.

ESC INSIGHT PREDICTS…
Armenia / Azerbaijan / Austria / Denmark / Greece / Hungary /
Malta / Norway / Romania / Spain / Sweden / United Kingdom

 (Note: Top 12 based on equal prediction points for the 10th spot between Hungary, Spain and Sweden)

 
 
Having FOMO over the prediction game?  Feel free to drop us your predictions list below.

About The Author: Sharleen Wright

Sharleen Wright is the co-founder of ESC Insight and a freelance journalist and researcher. She has previously worked for numerous community radio stations in Sydney Australia, and contributed to the wider world of comedy holding production and promotions roles at both the Edinburgh Fringe and Melbourne International Comedy Festival. Her written words have appeared online, as well as The List magazine, and numerous fanzines on the topics of television and specifically, Eurovision . She is currently based in Australia and undertaking research on food and event tourism. You can follow Sharleen on Twitter (@sharly77) and Facebook (facebook.com/sharleenwright).

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Have Your Say

19 responses to “ESCInsight Predictions For 2014”

  1. PurpleK says:

    You have 6 qualifiers from the first half in Semi 2, that’s impossible!

  2. Sharleen says:

    Well, nothing is truly impossible. Probable? well, thats more debatable. I guess the consensus predictions point more towards the fact that only 5 acts are not going to qualify from semi 2, so for me its about eliminating those who don’t feel likely to get the points rather than stating those who deserve to qualify.

  3. Kevin says:

    I’m surprised there are quite a few who think Sweden will miss the top 10. I think it’s very likely it’ll finish in the top 5. Glad to see many thinking the Netherlands will qualify.

  4. matt stevens says:

    im shock to see 3 people who think ireland won’t qualify :O

  5. Zolan says:

    Sharleen has only nine qualifiers for semi 1.

  6. Aria says:

    The only thing that really surprised me in this article was that you guys had Switzerland not qualifying. In my opinion, Switzerland is a definite qualifier and I’ve felt that way ever since I saw the draw.

  7. Zolan says:

    Ok, I see that Sharleen’s unlisted qualifier is Iceland.
    _______________

    @PurpleK. It’s an interesting methodological conundrum. (P.S. Still eagerly awaiting your next video. (P.P.S. Those American datestamps are frustrating.))
    _______________

    I know it’s prediction not preference, but I thought some details worth noting.

    __Semis__

    Albania defended by Ewan (over the Low Countries).
    Georgia defended by Ben and John (over Israel).
    Switzerland defended by Samantha (over Ireland and Lithuania).
    Poland having broad support. (Yay!)

    Flavour factions — Divided opinion filling similar roles:
    Iceland / Latvia
    Ireland / Slovenia ( / Switzerland)
    Macedonia / Belarus

    __Final__

    Already noted but worth emphasising: Every act except Greece ranks worse than 10th by at least one person.
    Italy and France dismissed by all. (I guess language counts quite strongly against them outside of ballads.)
    Iceland defended by John (over Azerbaijan and Denmark).

    With no other information, but assuming a token penalty for sharing qualification with one of the others, I get a tie break :: Sweden, then Hungary, then Spain.

  8. Zolan says:

    * By “qualification” I meant top-ten-ness.

  9. Zolan says:

    * …although there’s nothing significant about the top ten in the final, so playing the same game for all listed acts gives —

    1: Greece
    2: UK
    3-6: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Malta
    7-8: Romania, Norway
    9: Austria
    10: Sweden
    11: Hungary
    12: Spain
    13-15: Estonia, Belgium, Ukraine [ EBU straddling the divide 🙂 ]
    16-17: Montenegro, Iceland

  10. Hi Zolan, thanks for picking up my missing Iceland – its now fixed.
    The top 10 certainly isnt designed in a way of determining order of the top 10 itself – our team was asked to just predict the top 10 in no particular order.
    I think if we were asked to give our top 3/5 rankings for instance, none of us would be in agreeance at all.

    I will defend my viewpoint of Sweden not being a top 10 finalist in the guidebook soon. But hell, I will give you a taster. I can’t see any reason for it ranking so high in OGAE or any other lists other than the backstory she has. My feeling is, the song is rather bland, its not even the best of the female ballads (Azer IMO takes that honour), IMO its not the best of the Scandis either (Norway, Denmark). Presentation also counts; can’t see anything special there, and nor is Sanna. No-one in Europe outside fans and Sweden/Scandi would know or care about her backstory.
    There we have it – I think its overrated.
    Let’s watch me fall flat on my face in a fortnight (but preferably laughing as I pick up my tidy lay bet).

  11. Zolan says:

    Sharleen — Yes, I know they’re not meant as rankings 😉
    But just as Ewan can say ten acts are more strongly predicted to be in the top ten than the rest, I can do the same at smaller divisions. (Albeit using less data and flaky voodoo.)
    The fact that it resembles a place-ranking contrary to common expectations is an amusing side-effect.

    Oh, you’ve reminded me to ask — I don’t know what “guidebook” refers to or which to site to expect it on.

    ——–

    Now, combining Kylie’s observation with my tie-break approach suggests that Lithuania could be replaced by Macedonia in the 2nd semi, matching Paul’s prediction.

  12. Sharleen says:

    Our unofficial guidebook to Eurovision 2014 will be released via the website in a few days.
    Its our annual look at each artist, country stats, song details and reviews from Ewan, Sam and myself on each song.
    Make sure to download it!

  13. Stephen Colville says:

    Samantha, I’m really shocked that you think Ireland won’t make it. I have big respect for your opinion, so now I’m officially worried.

  14. Gert says:

    Why not be daring? Why not be giving the entire prediction from the left side of the scoreboard ;-)? In ranking order? This would be my TOP 13:

    01. DENMARK
    02. BELGIUM
    03. ROMANIA
    ——————–
    04. Austria
    05. Ukraine
    06. Estonia
    07. Armenia
    08. France
    09. Malta
    10. Azerbaijan
    ——————–
    11. Hungary
    12. Montenegro
    13. Norway

    Other possibilities for placings between 9th and 13th:
    00. Greece
    00. Netherlands
    00. Spain
    00. Sweden
    00. United Kingdom

    Sharleen? I do agree with Estonia. I’m surprised Belgium is mentioned only twice. And why is France failing. I think France will do better than, for instance Greece. Could be this year’s “Jedward”.

    The UK? I like the song…..but I hope singer Molly can bring about some necessary charm and warmth on screen (Remember Katrina & The Waves?). Same goes for Sanna and Carl.

    I also took the liberty of looking at the TOP 10’s of the editors and how many times they were mentioned:

    6 times – Greece
    5 times – Denmark
    5 times – Armenia
    5 times – Malta
    5 times – Azerbaijan
    5 times – United Kingdom
    4 times – Romania
    4 times – Austria
    3 times – Hungary
    3 times – Norway
    3 times – Spain
    2 times – Belgium
    2 times – Ukraine
    2 times – Estonia
    1 times – Montenegro
    1 times – Iceland

  15. Zolan says:

    @Gert. In the final top 10s, Norway is mentioned 4 times, and Sweden 3 times. (Just in case you are using those numbers for something)

  16. Blighty says:

    Excuse me, has everyone forgotten that Germany takes part as well? Elaiza is such a lovely trio with such a charming song!

  17. Sharleen says:

    imo, I think its a good year across the board for the Big 5. Whilst I dont see Italy, France and Germany coming top 10, I dont think we’ll see them last either. I’m predicting middle range (around 13-20) for those 3.

  18. OrangeVorty says:

    Can’t believe you’ve not got Israel in there – it’s my each-way bet this year and I think Italy will do well off the juries at the very least.

  19. OrangeVorty – I totally agree with you on Israel in terms of quality (my personal second-favorite this year), but the fact that Israel has under-performed on the scoreboard recently, even with strong songs, gave me a pit of pause. In my heart, I want it to OWN the competition, but the nation’s recent results made me skittish. Of course, it all depends on their staging and presentation, so who knows what will happen?

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