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Win, Lose or Draw Written by on April 25, 2011 | 6 Comments

As regular Eurovision fans will know, the BBC’s recent documentary Eurovision: Your Country Needs Blue, attempted in part to analyse the ingredients that make up a Eurovision winner. In doing so, some accepted myths about the structure of the winning song and the way it should be performed were well and truly debunked. But a vital criterion that wasn’t even mentioned was the one potential bear trap that any Eurovision entry has to negotiate…

The running order.

Since the contest began, the draw for performance order has always been a key moment for the fans in the build up to the Eurovision Grand Prix. For the majority of the performers, it appears to be something they give little thought or attention to as they prepare to take the Eurovision stage; after all, it’s something they have precious little (if any) control over. But it could indeed be the one element of the show that despite hours of rehearsal, planning and marketing, that might make all the difference between a victory, a narrow defeat or even a humiliating embarrassment.

The Curse of Second Place

Much has been made about the failure of any song performed second in the contest ever to triumph in the competition. The ‘curse’ has been around almost as long as the Contest itself. Indeed, singing second is not only statistically impossible to get you a win, it’s also the position that has produced the most last place finishes. Second in the draw is the only place in the running order that has featured in every contest that has never yet produced a winner. Many a favourite has drawn second and come crashing down to Earth in spectacular fashion on the big night. Hard to imagine that Vicky Leandros (1967), Olivia Newton-John (1974), Matia Bazaar (1979), Gili & Galit (1989) or Gina G (1996) were actually the Bookies pre-contest favourites when you look at how far down the scoreboard they ended up.

Ireland’s astonishing record in the 1990’s suffers only one drastic failure amongst their dizzying heights of success. Guess which of their results from 1992-1997 was produced from singing second in the order: 1st, 1st, 1st, 14th, 1st, 2nd.

But it isn’t just singing second that you want to avoid, despite some encouragement to the contrary. Although every other starting position in the first ten has produced a victory; a deeper look at the running order is definitely worth an investigation. Singing first or third doesn’t seem a bad option at all on a cursory inspection.

Jessica Garlick ran second, and finished third

Jessica Garlick (UK) ran second, and finished third

Failure in the First Wave

Both positions have produced seven victories between them. But before an artist should get too excited when they see 1 or 3 on the ball as it appears from the black velvet bag, it’s worth remembering that singing first provided three wins in a short window of just ten contests. It took nineteen editions before the first song went home in triumph, a success repeated the following year. Since 1984 – 27 years ago now – song one has only once managed to rise above fifth place.

Singing third would seem another good option. No less than four winners have come from this spot in the draw; making it in fact one of the most successful starting positions. But don’t any artist forget that singing third is also tied with singing second for the most number of last place finishes; eight in total, three of them coming in the post 1996 tele-voting era. Third produced a win in 1958, when there were just 10 songs competing, followed by one of the four winners in 1969, when Spain shared a victory on home ground. Apart from Monaco’s winner in 1971, when the opinions of only 36 people were consulted as to who should win, the only other winner was Ireland in 1994, also on home ground.

Fourth, sixth or seventh are all equally bad draws. Performing fourth was long tied with singing second as a cursed option. Finally in 2003, Turkey eked out a tiny victory from fourth in a field of 26. Since the maximum number of participants is now firmly set at 25, one wonders if the fluke of 2003 is just that and will never be repeated?

Since that win, fourth handed last place to Ireland in 2004, making it the sixth time the spot had delivered the wooden spoon.  Equally, you probably don’t want to sing sixth. The Dutch took victory from sixth of ten in the second contest in 1957 and er… that’s it. Nothing has won from there in the 53 editions since and you have to go back to 1993 for the last time the sixth performed song got a single digit finish, when Greece placed ninth. You’ll need to go all the way back to Paris 1978 for the last time singing sixth earned a top five result, when the home team edged up the leader board to third.

And seventh? Like drawing second, it might be an idea to stay at home – unless you’re happy with a reasonable place on the final score table without actually winning. Lenny Kuhr picked up one quarter of a win for the Dutch in 1969, the sole occasion singing seventh has proved fruitful, and arguably if a tie-breaker rule was in effect it wouldn’t even have that. As recently as 2009, Iceland’s Yohanna finished in second place, some 169 points behind the winner; whereas three years earlier, Malteser Fabrizio Faniello found himself in last place with a single point.

Yohanna (Iceland), second to Alexander Rybak (Norway)

Yohanna (Iceland), second to Alexander Rybak (Norway)

Don’t draw fifth either. Since giving the Dutch their second win in 1959, the only fifth sung song to triumph came in 1995 when the Norwegians submitted a largely instrumental track; a trick nobody has attempted since. Like sixth and eighth, fifth is also a likely candidate for last place; all having done so four times. Singing ninth looks good on paper. Three wins and only one last place in the last 30 years, would encourage any act who found themselves in ninth spot. Except you have to go back to 1966 for the last time any song triumphed from there; and as everyone knows, the contest of 1966 is a very different animal from that of 2011.

Eighth on the other hand is definitely encouraging. Probably the only single digit spot in the order that can be looked at as a positive omen. Abba became the third act to triumph from singing eighth and which Eurovision competitor wouldn’t mind just a smidgeon of their success? Since then, Sweden won from eighth for a second time with Carola in 1991 and as recently as 1998, Dana International took home the bacon (kosher of course) in Birmingham. Five wins for eighth, is slightly offset by the four last places for the same draw, but it still appears to be the one early draw which can give hope to any competitor.

So Mr Statistics, who’s going to win?

For the pundits who try to assess the likely potential of any given song’s chances in Eurovision, the semi-final system introduced in 2004 has made their job considerably harder, if not near impossible. Not knowing who will sing where until less than 48 hours before the final itself, does make it a tricky problem to spot an entry’s true potential in the real world. Azerbaijan are rumoured to have spent anywhere from one to ten million Euros on their marketing campaign for Oslo 2010 and they arrived in the Norwegian capital one of the clear favourites. I myself doubted they would be derailed from their victory until the moment Safura delved her hand into a black bag and produced a ball bearing the number one. She may as well have packed her bags that night. Fifth place once all the votes were added up is nothing to be sniffed at; but for a favourite to crash that badly, it is pretty disappointing.

Singing in the middle isn’t entirely unhelpful, but it’s certainly not ideal. Go all the way back to 1973 for the last time 11th produced a win or 1970 for 12th, when it was the last song of the night. Not great news for either France or Italy in 2011. The British fans supporting Blue in Düsseldorf heaved a sigh of relief and maybe even raised a cheer when the UK drew 14th for Germany. Five wins, including one previously for the UK, one for Ireland in a field of 25 and one as recently as 2000, has shown the draw definitely has its advantages.

Will running late help Blue (UK)

Will running late help Blue (UK)

In recent years, the EBU have granted wild cards during the draw making process and all those who’ve had the opportunity to pre-select a spot in the latter half of the draw have done so. Who can blame them? Singing 17th, last or two from the end has produced a combined total of 18 victories over the years. Of the eleven winners in the new millennium, ten have come from singing from 14th or later. Ireland notched up three wins from singing 17th and both winners from 2006 and 2007 took that draw. Whereas there are more places in the later part of the draw that have never produced a winner, in fairness it’s only because the contest has grown that many of those slots have made fewer appearances in the competition than their earlier counterparts.

Whereas 17th is clearly a very desirable starting point, one spot earlier in 16th spells disaster. Not a single winner has come from there. The same goes for 21st. Although Spain snapped up the chance to sing last in 2009 when handed a wild card, 25th is in fact also a dry draw for a win. You have to go back to 1989 and the pre-tele-voting era for the last of the six wins from singing last of all. Riva’s victory for Yugoslavia in 1989 was actually the only time 22nd had led to a win until German’s Lena joined the winner’s stable last year. The Spanish have opted to follow Lena’s draw this year as a result, but whether the same outcome will be achieved is another matter.

What about running last?

Ultimately, the song wins because it’s the song that the voters thought stood out from the crowd. But spotting the song in the crowd is clearly influenced by where in the crowd they’re positioned. Some things that are often blamed on the draw are in fact influenced by other far more important factors. Probably Matia Bazaar, Gili & Galit and Gina G wouldn’t have won anyway, even if they hadn’t been second on stage. Singing in tune is generally a requirement of any contestant, something the three of them overlooked. Denmark got the ‘lucky’ last place on home ground in 2001, with 30,000 Danes in the audience vocally supporting their song throughout Rollo & King’s performance. But it didn’t stop them losing to one of the rank outsiders in contest history. Singing last probably did help Nicole set a few records on her way to winning in Harrogate; but I’d lay good money that she’d have won no matter what; yes, even had she been singing second.

Does voting from the start of the show make a difference?

Fan theories abound that the recap of the songs (introduced in 1997) and the phone lines being open before a single song is even performed (introduced last year in Oslo) have made the running order irrelevant.

Spain have chosen Lena's winning slot for 2011

Spain have chosen Lena's winning slot for 2011

Certainly songs performed early in the semi finals have made it to the final regardless of any apparent – or imagined – historical handicaps. But it’s a big difference from being one of ten in a qualifier to being the outright victor in the final. Since the all-night phone voting has so far only been tried once, it’s too early to know if it will impact the early positions in the contest. So far, it doesn’t seem to have helped much. Azerbaijan and Belgium hovered around the top five in 2010, but otherwise, the remaining eight songs from the first 10 were all on the right hand side of the scoreboard in Oslo.

Three of the Big Five countries have already snaffled up positions in the latter half of the 2011 show and for their own piece of mind, none of the five will sing in the first 10, leaving almost all of the ‘death slots’ open for the semi-finalists. Lena’s already slim chances of breaking a long desired record of back-to-back victories was probably further hindered by drawing 16th; one of the few remaining barren slots for victory. If she breaks both the 16th duck and the double win, we may find a lot of former winners eyeing up 16th in future draws.

For 2011, we’ll all be keeping an eye on who gets any of the top seven draws after they’ve successfully qualified. For those that do, it might be a kindness to simply offer help carrying their bags to the airport.

John Kennedy O’Connor, April 2011.

About The Author: Ewan Spence

British Academy (BAFTA) nominated broadcaster and writer Ewan Spence is the voice behind The Unofficial Eurovision Song Contest Podcast and one of the driving forces behind ESC Insight. Having had an online presence since 1994, he is a noted commentator around the intersection of the media, internet, technology, mobility and how it affects us all. Based in Edinburgh, Scotland, his work has appeared on the BBC, The Stage, STV, and The Times. You can follow Ewan on Twitter (@ewan) and Facebook (facebook.com/ewanspence).

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Have Your Say

6 responses to “Win, Lose or Draw”

  1. Chris K says:

    The only thing not mentioned (kitchen sink? no) is mentioning looking at 2nd and 3rd last in the draw.

    Second to last won 4 times:
    – 1972 Luxembourg
    – 1997 United Kingdom
    – 2002 Latvia
    – 2008 Russia

    Third from last has won seven times:
    – 1961 Luxembourg
    – 1964 Italy
    – 1968 Spain
    – 1969 France
    – 1978 Israel
    – 1980 and 1987 Ireland (both Johnny Logan)

    May also mentioned Lena won from 4th from last in 2010 – all in all it depends on what is on stage on the day of the final. I only have to say singing last in knitted jumpers and sailor hats gave Lithuania second last spot.

    : )

  2. Ewan Spence says:

    I think we’d prefer to say “comprehensive” than “kitchen sink” !

  3. Chris K says:

    Kitchen sink = badly timed humour
    The article was brilliant.

  4. Ben says:

    Interesting read, but are we taking the draw slightly too seriously.

    I think the statistics speak for themselves when it comes to it obviously generally speaking better if you sing in the second half of the show, but I don’t believe for a second there is a real difference between singing in 16th or 17th position (in a field of 25). It’s just a coincidence.

  5. Andrew Webb says:

    An Interesting read.
    The Running order is relevant as anyone whos on before the break has no cats hope in chance of winning, the longest break in Europe……
    The voting during the songs has produced the one of the unlikeliest winner and also I hope that fate is on Blue’s side to snap up a win.
    All to do with that 14th spot and Bucks Fizz…

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