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Eurovision 2018: The Betting State Of Play Written by on May 9, 2018

Out of the Eurovision bubble of Lisbon, ESC Insights’ Sharleen Wright, has been following the proceedings with some money making in mind.  Our amateur punter gives us the latest rundown of the odds and the changes seen in the Eurovision 2018 betting game.

The 2018 Eurovision Song Contest was always going to be a tough one to call and many have already failed to predict the ten qualifiers from that first semi-final of death.

Even as we head to the second Semi Final and also fast approach the final this Saturday night, the fandom is still unsure who may be crowned this years winner.

The story of the odds plays out this story in full. Rehearsals have seen the favourite changing with great frequency, and this year the media are unable to publish full stage performances prior to the live show. This has left many betting enthusiasts at a quandary, leaving them to clutch at whatever press coverage and fan reviews they can uncover.

How Have The Odds Changed?

We came to Lisbon with one great favourite: Israel. It sat at the top of the ladder from the moment of its unveiling in March, even going down to the extremely short odds of 2/1.  However, the market began to get nervous on it first rehearsal claiming it appeared messy and busy.  Despite changes and new camera angles, this concern continued through the second rehearsals, and by the end of the jury semi final, it found itself dethroned by the fiery act from Cyprus.  Prior to the rehearsals, the Cypriot act of Eleni Foureira had been placed well out of contention beyond 100/1.

Behind headline-grabbing Israel and Cyprus, smaller stories have also been playing out.

From the rehearsals, pre-contest favourites Australia and Belgium found themselves set adrift from mid 10s to the wilderness of 60 and above. Lithuania has enjoyed a very different trajectory. Following the Tuesday night broadcast, Lithuania dropped from 170/1 to a 4th favourite position of the title. Its odds are now hovering around 15/1 at the time of publishing. Contrast this with Estonia and Bulgaria: these countries have been part of the front runner pack since the start and they have remained relatively static in their positions, despite their odds moving out further post-semi final.

Of course, we have one more semi final to run before our final lineup is determined.  Norway has now firmly established itself as the second favourite to win the whole contest – stuck between Cyprus and Israel.  Many predict this will change. Change is also in the cards for Moldova. Positive reports from rehearsals mean that Moldova has moved rapidly from a 80/1 standing down to as low as 25/1 in the past 24 hours.  And if we look towards the Big 5 (and, of course, our hosts Portugal), the polls tip France to be among the potential winners for the Saturday show

Playing The Game

Odds aren’t just about the winners though.  The markets offer many more options for those who wish to take a flutter on the contest. You bet on anything from semi final qualifiers/non-qualifiers to guessing contestants’ positions or scores. It is all available to make money on, if you so wish.  Taking a top 10 may offer you a lower return, but it also offers punters a fairer chance of a win (picking whether your entry will fall within the first 10 at the final rather than the number 1).

Australian offers such exotic options as to whether Jess Mauboy will fall over during the performance to whether Australia will host the contest locally if they win.

So how would you base your decision on who and where to take a flutter? It is really up to you – but we recommend you look for opportunities where the ‘best value’ returns lie.  Are you thinking perhaps Albania has the chance of a top 10 right now?  Well, that may just net you 7.5 times value on your initial investment.

Picking your bet may come down to your gut instinct or you can take a heavy research based approach on your chances.  A lot of thought goes into the risk when you start popping $100 on Norway at 75/1 back in early March. You need to assess the potential of the artist’s performance following the song’s selection before comparing it to other competitors in the field — and then you need to wrap your head around the more difficult concepts of laying and cashing out that the likes of Betfair offers. It also pays to look at the statistical history of who normally votes for who, previous results of similar entries in recent years, what is topping the music downloads on ESC Tracker, and the social media reaction.

Who is out and who is in that may benefit your chosen act come final time is another great possible indicator.  With Azerbaijan, Armenia and Belarus out, and potentially the likes of Georgia and Russia to follow (based on current betting odds for qualification in semi 2), who in the East could benefit from this lack of ex-Soviets regionally in the big show?

And it is perhaps worth noting that whilst everyone online is talking about Cyprus, the replay of semi final 1 in Australia with its live rating system of viewers indicated that the viewers clearly loved Finland – Cyprus ranked a distant 8th.

Something To Keep In Mind

Odds are simply a reaction to the market interest at any given time; they rank a likelihood of a result rather than any guarantee.  It is certainly fallible – for every ‘Fairytale’, ‘Euphoria’ and ‘Only Teardrops’ favourite, there are stories such as the failure to predict the 2014 win of Conchita until the shows had started. The Common Linnets were also a huge surprise: they placed second in 2014 and had flown completely under the bookies’ radar.  And, lest we forget, Italy’s Gabbani remained the favourite in 2017 until the last day and he finished in sixth place.

We aren’t encouraging to bet, but simply note that it is one way you may wish to enhance your Eurovision experience.  And of course, you should always only bet what you can afford to happily risk and lose.

About The Author: Sharleen Wright

Sharleen Wright is the co-founder of ESC Insight and a freelance journalist and researcher. She has previously worked for numerous community radio stations in Sydney Australia, and contributed to the wider world of comedy holding production and promotions roles at both the Edinburgh Fringe and Melbourne International Comedy Festival. Her written words have appeared online, as well as The List magazine, and numerous fanzines on the topics of television and specifically, Eurovision . She is currently based in Australia and undertaking research on food and event tourism. You can follow Sharleen on Twitter (@sharly77) and Facebook (facebook.com/sharleenwright).

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