Newsletter: Is Italy Heading For A Fairytale Victory? Written by on March 11, 2017 | 3 Comments

Welcome to the latest edition of the ESC Insight newsletter, your one-stop shop for all the latest Eurovision news. This week we cast our eye over the latest batch of confirmed entries, and examine the latest movements in the betting market…

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Italy still leading the pack as Kyiv lineup nears completion

With over two thirds of the entries for the Eurovision Song Contest 2017 now in the public domain, the betting markets are beginning to identify the potential frontrunners – with Italy’s Francesco Gabbani still the overwhelming favourite for victory.

Gabbani’s San Remo winner ‘Occidentali’s Karma‘ has now clocked up over 50 million views on Youtube, in addition to topping the charts for several weeks in his home country. Should he win, he would deliver Italy their first victory since 1990, and their third in total.

Second in the betting at time of writing are Belgium. Their internally-selected ‘City Lights‘ by Blanche is a thoroughly modern, chart-friendly dance track that saw the Benelux nation’s odds slashed within hours of its release this week. Belgium have won the Contest just once before, with Sandra Kim in 1988.

The rest of the top five according to the bookmakers are countries that have yet to confirm their entries. Sweden are currently in third ahead of their national final this Saturday. Russia’s strong form in recent years sees them sitting in fourth, while Serbia are up to fifth on the strength of a short instrumental snippet and the songwriting team behind Bulgaria’s 2016 entry If Love Was a Crime.

At the other end of the betting leaderboard, Slovenia, Albania and Montenegro currently have the least-fancied entries, although Montenegro have yet to publish and Albania are expected to present a radically revamped version of their entry before Kyiv, as has become tradition. United Kingdom currently sit square in the middle of the pack with odds of around 50/1.

Check out the rest of this week’s Eurovision analysis by reading the latest newsletter in full right here.

About The Author: John Lucas

A writer and content marketing professional with a passion for getting lost in strange cities and a strange fascination with micro states, John has been with ESC Insight since 2015 and has also had his writing featured in publications including The Guardian, Popjustice and So So Gay. Tweetable @JLucas86.

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3 responses to “Newsletter: Is Italy Heading For A Fairytale Victory?”

  1. Eurojock says:

    Can’t say there’s much I disagree with in your Eurovision analysis, John. At the time of (my) writing Sweden have selected I Can’t Go On, but we are still awaiting Russia, Bulgaria and Armenia.

    I agree that Occidentali’s Karma is by quite some way the favourite. Sweden look a fair bet for top five. Belgium have the best song but for the reasons you give it may not be televote friendly enough to win (4th -7th sounds more reasonable). Latvia and Portugal also have good songs but they will not be to everyone’s taste. Latvia might make top 10 but I fear too many people will regard Portugal’s entry as dated and weird and qualification to the final might be its limit. The one to watch out for in my view is Australia. I can imagine this topping the jury vote and coming quite close.

    Then, of course, what will Russia bring to the party? Although Occidentali’s Karma has the feel of a Eurovision Winner it is far from bullet proof. A strong Russian entry could still snatch victory and exact revenge on Ukraine for last year. But, as they can hardly expect any favours from the host broadcaster, will they take the view that going for the win in 2017 is worth the effort?

  2. Eurojock says:

    Strike out my comments about Russia winning. I’ve just seen the video of their entry!

  3. Marc says:

    Sandra Kim 1988? It was 1986. It was none of than Céline Dion who actually won in 1988. How could you not remember her victory by a single point? Come to think of it, you clearly weren’t even born then so I’ll give you benefit of the doubt.

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