Over the past few years, one of my pre-Eurovision traditions has been to host a preview party for my friends at my apartment. Over grilled sausage, hummus, and imported beers, we go through all of the entries and rate the songs, poking playful fun at the cavalcade of musical delights from across the pond. The group is a diverse one: an expat from Germany, a indie musician, an internationally-ranked Scrabble champion, all budding Eurovision fans.
For most of my guests, these songs have never been seen before, so they may be a more organic sampling of the average viewer at home the night of the shows, and the group tends to not be too far off the mark from the eventual winner. We predicted the success of Conchita and the Common Linnets in 2014, and had Sweden in second place last year, just behind Australia. (That being said, we’re far from perfect; songs like ‘Autumn Leaves’ and Takasa’s ‘You and Me’ have also done well.)
Rising to the top this year’s ranking was France (with an average of just over eight out of ten), but taking silver and bronze among my friends were two songs that have passed the betting odds and OGAE polls by: Serbia (currently sitting at 15th place with OGAE, with 42 points) and Belgium (currently 30th, with only 2 points). As I posted my results on social media, a few of my Eurovision friends mentioned that Belgium, in particular, had done well among their non-contest-obsessed contacts.
Laura Tesoro: A Flemish Surprise? (Credit: songfestival.be)
What are we missing in the bubble? Do the conversations on betting odds and big hitters like Sweden and Russia simply brush the up-and-comers under the rug? Or does the presence of fifteen sets of fresh eyes from a non-participating nation pick up on something that the view from inside the sphere don’t, simply because we’re fixated on something else?
The Blessing And The Curse Of The OGAE Vote
There are around a thousand members of the press hovering around the event, but there are millions more viewers at home. Most of these viewers haven’t taken the time to listen to the entries beforehand and let them grow on them, learn about the artists’ back-stories, or research the lyrics. For the dedicated folks who have, the OGAE vote has become a way for hardcore fans’ points of view to filter out into the ether before the contest itself. Each branch of the fan club releases their picks for Top Ten, which inevitably causes all eyes in the press centre to hone in on the acts that rise to the top.
However, the OGAE Poll, while a fun examination of the show to come, isn’t infallible. Since 2007, only four poll winners have taken home the win (‘Molitva‘ in 2007, ‘Fairytale‘ in 2009, ‘Euphoria‘ in 2012, and ‘Only Teardrops‘ in 2013). Last year’s silver medalist at the Contest, ‘A Million Voices’, failed to enchant the OGAE vote, and they limped to an 11th place with the fan club. In 2014, OGAE’s pick for third place, Israel’s ‘Same Heart‘, failed to even qualify from the semifinals, while ‘Rise Like a Phoenix’ placed only 4th with the fan club.
There are a number of reasons why this could be. OGAE voters only have preview videos and a handful of other performances to gauge the quality of the song on. Things could change immensely once all songs are put on the same stage, with similar camera and sound quality. With an equalized technical baseline, all that’s left is the song, how its staged, and how its performed. A great song in studio could easily fall due to poor vocals, awkward staging, or one of a million other reasons. The OGAE vote also fails to account for the voice of the juries. Last year’s OGAE winner, ‘Grande Amore‘, may have taken the public’s vote on the night as well, but once the juries were counted, it was ‘Heroes‘ that took home the victory.
This isn’t to say that the OGAE vote isn’t valuable; it’s a fun way for the fan clubs to connect with its members and to each other, and it’s a great resource for the delegations that find themselves near the top of the heap. But just like betting odds months out from the competition, things are constantly in flux and can change with a myriad of stimuli.
A Sure Bet? Surely, There’s Something More.
The other big gauge for pre-Contest favorite-picking is a peek at the betting odds. However, the folks who are placing bets often have the same information that the OGAE voters do. And, like the OGAE vote, the betting odds often show trends, but are not end-all, be-all portends of results to come.
While ‘Heroes‘ was the odds-on favorite last year, and other Top Five placers Italy and Australia were also tapped by the betting houses, Russia and Belgium were passed over in favor of Estonia and Finland, a country that eventually came last in their Semifinal.
In 2014, all eyes were on Sweden and Armenia, but eventual winners Austria and the Netherlands didn’t storm the betting odds until their stagings were actually revealed. The betting odds from the infamously unpredictable 2011 event focused on France, Estonia, the United Kingdom, Hungary, and Sweden, yet only one of those five even reached the Top Ten.
Vox Populi
For the last six years, I’ve been fortunate enough to have been able to see the Eurovision Song Contest from the inside, chatting with fellow fans, connecting with delegations, and sneaking peeks at rehearsals. My colleagues here in the Press Centre are on generally the same mental wavelength as I am, but that can be dangerous. By taking the time to step outside the comfortable bubble that we’ve constructed for ourselves here at the Press Centre, we open our eyes to new perspectives that, with the benefit of hindsight, might have been right all along.
We here on site might be able to report on what we’ve seen, and even give our somewhat informed predictions, but sadly, we are not soothsayers.
The Eurovision fan community is truly an incredible one. Collectively, we’re a treasure trove of knowledge and insider information that allows us to view a music video, snippet of rehearsal footage, or interview with a songwriter and extrapolate how audiences at home may react. Chewing up all of that delicious input, synthesizing betting odds, numbers of YouTube hits, preview events… it makes for a lot of information bouncing around the echo chamber.
However, sometimes it’s healthy for us, as Eurovision fans and pundits, to step outside of the bubble and take a few breaths. We need to remember that while it may be satisfying to sit on the cutting edge of the world’s largest musical festival, we are only one sliver of who’s watching and, more importantly, voting on the eventual outcome.
For me, that involves sitting with a group of friends in a living room in Minnesota over appetizers and drinks.