Support ESC Insight on Patreon

The Mysterious Stranger’s predictions for the Big Five Written by on April 29, 2011 | 2 Comments

There is a secret society that reads Eurovision Predictions… every year their leader emails round his Song Contest predictions, based on countless listens, experience and personal ability to spot a winner. And every year Carnac the Magnificent the mysterious stranger gets it hopelessly, horribly, wrong.

Now, he’s going public and psychically divine the winner of this years contest, just for ESC Insight. First up, some personal thoughts before looking at the chances of the newly formed Big Five countries.

Much later in the year than usual, its time to sit down and wade through the 43 songs that will battle for supremacy in the 56th Eurovision Song Contest in Düsseldorf, Germany in the forlorn hope of actually picking the winner. Many call this “Carnac’s Kiss of Death”, and then go on to make a shed load of cash betting on the very songs I cast aside and ignore with disdain.

According to the history books I have only been right on two occasions, namely 1997 and 2000 (and even in 2000 I only picked The Olsen Brothers on the night before the final). If ever there was proof that even a stopped clock is right twice a day, then that is it. However I am forever hopeful that some year I will actually choose the one song that will have the tele-voters of Europe in raptures, and with it restore my battered reputation as a seasoned Eurovision watcher. So with that, let’s move onto the songs of 2011.

I have to say that this is one of those Eurovision years when literally anything can happen. This is not Moscow 2009, when Alexander Rybak had the winner’s trophy in his bag three months before the final. Instead this year reminds me a lot of Tallinn 2002, when there was no standout song. In such a year anything can happen, as it did in 2002 when Latvia emerged from nowhere to scoop the prize.

In a moment like this (wink), everything will come down to the live performance on the night. Sing well, and you are in with a shout. Sing badly, and you are on the early flight out of Düsseldorf on the Wednesday morning after the first semi final.

I can’t spot a clear winner this year, despite having seen a number of the performers live in Amsterdam in early April. That all should make for an interesting three evenings in the Esprit Arena. There are though some big names in this year’s contest, and that could make a key difference in an otherwise even year. Anyway, enough of my musings. Onto the songs!

France

The opening is straight out of Ravel’s “Bolero”, and the song is straight off Il Divo’s last album. This is a song that promises a lot and there is no denying that our handsome singer has a decent voice. However this song fails to deliver a sucker-punch for me, and is ultimately disappointing.

It needs to build to a great crescendo, an emotional climax. Instead it maintains basically the same pitch throughout and then ends quite abruptly. To my ears this is a longer song that has been cut down to the three minute time limit. All that said, it might be the one to beat on the night, and is worth an each-way flutter.

Italy

Completing the list of returnees this year is the prodigal nation of Eurovision, Italy. Despite their haughty absence from the contest since 1997, were the Italians made to serve some class of apprenticeship before being allowed back in?

Not at all!

Not only were they welcome back with open arms, but the EBU did the Eurovision equivalent of killing the fattened calf by making Italy one of the Big Five. So now that Italy are well and truly back within the embrace of the Eurovision family, what about their song for Düsseldorf?

Well, it’s a jazz number, sort of thing more associated with Jamie Cullum or even Michael Bublé. It’s as far removed from what I would expect from Italian music as its possible to get. But this kind of music has an audience. I just expect them to be in some smoky jazz club on a Saturday night rather than sitting at home watching the Eurovision Song Contest. And is that Robert de Niro waiting in the video?

The United Kingdom

One of the higher profile acts in many years to grace the Eurovision stage represents the United Kingdom in Düsseldorf. Blue have reformed after five years and are hoping to re-launch their career with a successful assault on Eurovision. And they just might do it to. The song is strong, and on the CD version at least, there is a very good mix of the four different vocals.

A group as well known as Blue have to start a contest like Eurovision with a strong advantage, if only because people already know them. However, if they get the live performance right, and in particular get the sound levels and mix of the vocals spot on, then this is the winner.

Germany

For the first time since Corry Brokken tried to retain her Eurovision title in Hilversum in 1958, a reigning Eurovision champion is entering the contest. Back in 1958 poor Corry only managed to come equal last in 1958 with a mere one point, so the omens for Lena are not that great.

In many respects this song is not that dissimilar from “Satellite” which won for her last year. That had not been a typical Eurovision, or even a contest song, and neither is “Taken by a Stranger”. This song is all very moody and dark, and the video is very 80s German. In fact it kind of reminds me of the spoof German entry in the Eurobeat musical. All in all, an interesting effort from Germany, but not a winner methinks.

Spain

After some German moodiness comes a splash of light and colour from the Spaniards. This is such a cheery song, set off perfectly with the video set in Carnival time. This song could only be a Spanish Eurovision entry. It’s bright, breezy and most of all catchy. It’s terribly dated, but isn’t that what a lot of people love about Eurovision?

I can see this vying with Belarus in the popularity stakes in the Euroclub and it is a guaranteed hit on this Costas this summer. It has a great key change and finishes well. This could do better than a lot of people think.

Stay with ESC Insight as Carnac The Mysterious Stranger turns his predictive eye to the semi-finals this weekend, before he decides on his own top five.

You Can Support ESC Insight on Patreon

ESC Insight's Patreon page is now live; click here to see what it's all about, and how you can get involved and directly support our coverage of your Eurovision Song Contest.

Have Your Say

2 responses to “The Mysterious Stranger’s predictions for the Big Five”

  1. PJ says:

    I know who the secret stranger is! I just hope I don’t get taken by him!! 😉

  2. Spot on, the Spanish entry is very dated and so is the whole contest, a dated song for a dated song contest… so top then for Spain Lucias fun song.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *